Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 1/08/22
US Indexes added to gains to end the week and month strong. Big tech once again supported the action and pressed the market higher after Amazon and Apple provided some positive forecasts. The action was also supported by Exxon and Chevron posting record revenue which were supported by rising Oil and Gas prices. Data showed that US labour costs increased which will keep inflation higher for longer which showed in the better than expected PCE price index data release (the Feds preferred inflation measure). Also Consumer Spending grew which will continue to support higher inflation which I would expect to weigh on the markets in the new month. The USD bounced back hard in the European session but then weakened back into support during European trade. Bond yields on longer dated Bonds were generally lower as most traders are expecting that inflation is sticky meaning continued aggressive rate rises from the US Fed. Aussie ANZ Job Adverts at 11:30am AEST, Caixin Manufacturing PMI at 11:45am AEST and US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 12am AEST.
Market Price Action continues to get extended which will make the intraday again difficult.
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 60 points after the SPI200 followed the US higher into the weekend to extend on recent gains.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures up 46 pts to 6906
SP500 up 57.86 pts to 4130.29
NASDAQ Composite up 228.10 pts to 12390.69
Dow Jones up 315.50 pts to 32845.13
FTSE100 up 78.18 pts to 7423.43
DAX30 up 201.94 pts to 13484.05
GOLD futures US session (AUG) up $12.60 to $1762.90 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Sep) up $0.1175 to $3.5920 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Sep) up $2.20 to $98.62 a barrel
CRB Index up 3.04 pts to 292.06
AUDUSD trading at 0.6985
EURUSD trading at 1.0220
GBPUSD trading at 1.2171
USDJPY trading at 133.2700
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) down 0.529 to 105.707
The SPI200/ASX200 moved higher to extend on recent gains into the end of the month. The SPI200 held a higher low at 6884 which is the anchor to the move up and may come under fire today to start the new month. The ASX200 is at 7020 potential resistance which could see some profit taking but the SPI200 will need to break the anchor first before I look for a lower high to short. For now…bulls are out to play, just waiting to see if the recent rally was month end window dressing or not (Refer to the members area for updated ASX200 charts). The DOW extended on the recent gains and pushed up through 32720. I expect that the recent bullishness could continue and lift prices into the 33250 area in coming sessions. Looking for a retest into 32720 and a minor higher low to hold. The US Tech 100 held a RTF at 12775 which is now the short term anchor to the move up. It will be interesting to see if inflation concerns again weigh on tech into the new month and after last weeks major earnings. As long as the anchor holds, I am looking for a higher low to hold for continuation up. The Hang Seng had a rough US session as prices came under pressure while other markets rallied. Price tested into 20065 and held the level into the close. Watching for a short squeeze and move higher today as long as bulls hold an early flush flush lower. The Nikkei pushed higher into resistance which may be a problem today. The 27960 resistance level as kept the action down recently and I expect to see some profit taking into the level today. Watching for a flush higher and then a lower high for a squeeze on buyers. The DAX Index is holding higher lows and trending higher on the short term timeframe. Price is in no mans land for me between 13445 and 13645 so watching for either a clear lower high and a sell setup or the reverse…a pullback and higher low for a long. UK 100 Index is much the same with a good extension higher into the US close Friday. Price held a higher low at 7415 so watching this level to see if it comes under fire today or can hold for continuation up.
Cryptos stood their ground into the month end and consolidated around resistance levels into the US close. Ethereum is primed for a rally but needs to hold a clear higher low to break up and through 1700. Bitcoin is showing more signs of weakness off 24060 and may need to flush into 22870 prior to another leg higher.
Spot Gold continued to add to the gains and pushed into resistance around 1764. Price held a higher low at 1752 which is the anchor to the move up and if this level holds, then I am expecting pullbacks to hold and the trend up to continue. Crude Oil saw a bit spike higher on the US open but then a failure back down again into the US close. Watching a minor support area at 98.02 to see if buyers are looking to defend the level and press price higher. USD Index spike higher and then came straight back down as traders digested inflationary data and what that means to rate rises and economic growth. Watching the 105.700 level to see if the Dollar will start the new month on the back foot or will find buyers to support the level. USDJPY could be a big short on the horizon as there are a lot of YEN shorts stacked up and ready to be squeezed out if the USD unwinds. I expect that longer term, if we continue to see data suggesting the US economy is slowing, the pair is heading lower…just watching for a short entry setup.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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