Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR TUESDAY 2/08/22
US Indexes had a contained session as bulls started the new month with an uncertain session. Traders may be happy to consolidate the recent gains ahead of the all important US jobs numbers out Friday. It seems that we may see a general ‘wait and see’ mood as traders that expect to see some follow through to the upside are happy to hold while new buyers hold back expecting at least a pullback. Oil took a big hit which weighed on the share markets ‘risk on’ sentiment. ISM Manufacturing data showed a general slowing in demand across the board in Asia, Europe and the US. There continues to be a tug of war between the two opposing arguments on economic growth…those that believe that a slowdown is already fully factored in and others that believe it is not. I feel that we have not seen a rate rise cycle for many years and there remains a lingering bullish mood around while the slowdown will show up in data more into the end of the year and the start of next. Aussie CASH RATE and RBA Statement at 2:30pm AEST and US Jolts Jobs Openings at 12am AEST.
Market Price Action continues to get extended which will make the intraday again difficult.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 10 points after the SPI200 gave up early gains in the overnight session and drifted lower into the close.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures down 21 pts to 6880
SP500 down 11.66 pts to 4118.63
NASDAQ Composite down 21.71 pts to 12368.98
Dow Jones down 46.73 pts to 32798.40
FTSE100 down 10.01 pts to 7413.42
DAX30 down 4.42 pts to 13479.63
GOLD futures US session (Sep) up $7.10 to $1774.00 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Sep) down $0.0423 to $3.5312 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Sep) down $4.73 to $93.89 a barrel
CRB Index down 5.96 pts to 286.11
AUDUSD trading at 0.7027
EURUSD trading at 1.0260
GBPUSD trading at 1.2253
USDJPY trading at 131.6500
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) down 0.494 to 105.285
The SPI200/ASX200 rallied early in the European session as bulls again tried to pump price up in the overnight session. Price found sellers at 6920 which was enough to send price lower in the US session. I expect that there will be a lower high held at 6889 and a flush through 6873 which are the two key levels for me today. (Refer to the members area for updated ASX200 charts). The DOW had a relatively choppy session but did hold above the 32720 area. Price was supported and flushes but also failed to extend into new highs. I will be watching to see if the 32720 area can hold today/tonight and see a ramp higher. The US Tech 100 was much the same as bulls held the 12880 as support after an early opening flush lower to clear out buyers and trap sellers. I expect there to be continued love into Tech so watching for a higher low. If price fails back below 12880, then we could see longs unwind and price move below 12770. The Hang Seng had another bearish overnight session as price action flushed into 19890 at the start of the US session. Watching the 19890 level on the open to either fail to work the short side or hold an opening flush and then work the long side. The Nikkei held below the 28055 area while buyers defended a spike into 27800. Price held lower highs and higher lows so will need to build some clearer price action prior to any long or short setup. As the N225 has been bullish of late, I expect to see a higher low hold so am biased up. The DAX Index drifted lower off 13554 but held support around 13440. Like with the US, bulls are reluctant to exit and happy to remain risk on for now. Watching to see if we get a flush into 13440 and then a minor higher low. If not, price could easily unwind some longs tonight and move below 13440. UK 100 Index is much the same as the DAX as price holds above 7400 which I see as key for tonights European session. Watching to see if the level holds or we see an unwind of buyers and move down.
Cryptos stood their ground into the month end and consolidated around resistance levels into the US close. Ethereum is primed for a rally but needs to hold a clear higher low to break up and through 1700. Bitcoin is showing more signs of weakness off 24060 and may need to flush into 22870 prior to another leg higher.
Spot Gold is holding the short term trend higher but the price action is a grind. Expecting to see price chop around the 1764 area but hold above to extend up into 1783 which is a major level and will bring in some sellers and potentially trigger some profit taking. Crude Oil took a hit as price dropped through 96.30 support and into the 92.27 zone. I am watching to see if price gets bid up off 92.27 and buyers provide some support. For now, price is biased down on the 30min and I expect to see a flush into 92.27 before any new leg up. USD Index is continuing to edge lower to squeeze out more buyers. The longer term daily trend remains up and we are correcting the last leg up at this stage. I feel that bulls will be happy to wait for employment data Friday in the US so expecting to see a continue drift lower into USD. USDJPY is still pressing lower and is in search of a bid which I expect will later become the fuel for the bigger move down. Price needs to start the move, come off a support area to drag in some buyers and then hold a lower high for the entry short. So for now…just watching for a short entry setup.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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