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Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR THURSDAY 4/08/22
US Indexes ramped higher from the open as it seems they were happy that Pelosi made it safe and sound into Taiwan. The previous sessions move down proved to be just an over reaction to a non event pumped up in the media and China stamping their feet was all that was the concern. It was all about positive economic data mixed in with some positive Fed official statements. Data showed a robust economy which would generally be a concern for inflation although Fed officials made sure that investors knew that the Fed could get inflation under control potentially with a less aggressive rate rising cycle. Throw in a few good earnings reports and it was again risk on into share markets with Tech leading the way…seems like the good times are back. Oil moved lower on higher than expected inventory data but this could also be attributed to lower demand expected from an economic slowdown. Aussie Trade Balance at 11:30am AEST, BOE Official Bank Rate and Monetary Policy Report at 9pm AEST and US Unemployment Claims at 10:30pm AEST.
Market Price Action is heading higher although any negative news is getting punished making intraday a coin toss…risk management remains prime focus!
CLICK HERE FOR ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST) 4/08/22
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 40 points after the SPI200 completely reversed the days session weakness and was again ramped higher in overnight trading.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures up 32 pts to 6910
SP500 up 63.98 pts to 4155.17
NASDAQ Composite up 319.40 pts to 12668.16
Dow Jones up 416.33 pts to 32812.50
FTSE100 up 36.57 pts to 7445.68
DAX30 up 138.36 pts to 13587.56
GOLD futures US session (Spot) up $4.18 to $1765.34 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Sep) down $0.0398 to $3.4787 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Sep) down $3.76 to $90.66 a barrel
CRB Index down 1.98 pts to 281.72
AUDUSD trading at 0.6950
EURUSD trading at 1.0169
GBPUSD trading at 1.2146
USDJPY trading at 133.8400
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) up 0.171 to 106.275
The SPI200/ASX200 had a strange session with a selloff during the day which reversed from no-where to then be ramped straight back up into resistance. It seems that it is getting ramped up at night just to be sold lower (ie share selling) during the day. Either way, expect a strong open and potentially a test into resistance at 6922 where I would expect to see some profit taking from buyers (refer to the members area for updated ASX200 charts). The DOW lifted up off 32360 and tested into 32920 during the US session. Price action is extended and momentum looks to be slowing so we may expect the level to hold today. Watching for a lower higher to pressure price down. The US Tech 100 was the star of the session and moved up through resistance at 13075 into new short term highs and no mans land. Price is extended and I would need to see a corrective move down to flush out some buyers prior to any long. The Hang Seng held support around 19700 during the day and then moved up in the overnight session to end into resistance at 19970. Not a big move so I feel there is still some bearish sentiment lingering around the underlying index. In saying that, I am looking for a squeeze higher off 19970 just to annoy the bears and catch them off guard. The Nikkei again had no problem ramping higher in the overnight session as buyers held 27650 as support. The move up is extended so I expect that the 28055 level will be key for shorts today. Watching the open for a lower high to stick for a short entry setup. The DAX Index lifted up on positive earnings and a strong US session and ended up around resistance at 13645. As price is extended, I will be looking for a flush of the level prior to any profit taking from buyers. It seems that earnings are the main focus which I then expect will then turn to an economic slowdown. UK 100 Index tested up into previous highs at 7470 which held. Watching to see if 7430 will hold but I do expect that the RTF (double top) will drag in some sellers today and trigger some profit taking from buyers for a move lower.
Cryptos run into resistance as bulls gave back early gains from the European session into the US close. Bitcoin held the 22430 area and is pushing back down into support around 22870 which it will need to hold to fend off a selloff. Ethereum held resistance at 1675 which could be the lower high to drag in sellers for a move below 1615.
Spot Gold was mixed as a RTF (double bottom) held at 1754 and then another RTF held around 1764. This to me shows the uncertainty of Gold bulls with the likely move today being down to test into 1754 as long as the USD continues to pressure higher. Crude Oil was spiked up into resistance at 96.30 before failing below 92.27 on the back of positive inventory data. Watching to see if the bears continue the push lower and off a retest into 92.27 from below. USD Index ramped higher after some positive economic news which supports inflation bulls and bigger rate rises. I expect that price will hold above 106.210 tonight and even press higher ahead of the key US employment data tomorrow night. USDJPY has moved up into test 134.515 so I am now watching for the level to hold and a lower high (potentially on a lower timeframe chart) for a move down through 131.451 longer term.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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