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Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR TUESDAY 9/08/22
US Indexes saw some profit taking into a strong open ahead of the CPI numbers Wednesday. The inflationary CPI numbers will give investors a better view of the Feds tightening efforts and whether they have been successful in taming inflation without cooling the growth of the economy. Traders were reminded of a slowing economy from Nvidia’s revenue warning which weighed on tech shares. The USD retreated from highs made Friday after the blowout jobs number while US bonds held the lows awaiting CPI data release. Oil held up off the lows in anticipation that demand will continue to support higher prices as long as the view is that global growth will not take too much of a hit from higher interest rates. Thanks to the USD, gold rallied back into highs prior to the US employment release but is running out of steam…it will not take much of a kick higher into the USD to send gold back down. Automakers in the US got a much needed lift after the US Senate passed a $430 billion bill to fight climate change that created a $4,000 tax credit for used electric vehicles and provides billions in funding for their production. Aussie Westpac Consumer Sentiment at 10:30am AEST and NAB Business Confidence at 11:30am AEST.
Market Price Action saw some profit taking on the US open so we MAY expect some pressure today into Asian Indexes.
CLICK HERE FOR ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST) 9/08/22
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 5 points after the SPI200 rejected a move into new highs early in the US session.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures down 8 pts to 6915
SP500 down 5.13 pts to 4140.06
NASDAQ Composite down 13.09 pts to 12644.46
Dow Jones up 29.07 pts to 32832.54
FTSE100 up 42.63 pts to 7482.37
DAX30 up 113.76 pts to 13687.69
GOLD futures US session (Spot) up $13.44 to $1789.24 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Sep) up $0.0350 to $3.5870 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Sep) up $1.75 to $90.76 a barrel
CRB Index up 0.76 pts to 281.80
AUDUSD trading at 0.6980
EURUSD trading at 1.0195
GBPUSD trading at 1.2083
USDJPY trading at 135.0000
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) down 0.210 to 106.280
The SPI200/ASX200 initially added to the days gains in the European session to push into news highs but then failed back down below 6916. This is the key level for me today and I expect an opening flush above 6916 to trap some buyers before a move lower. I feel that the longer term 30 min charts are starting to look heavy so watching for a lower high. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for updated ASX200 charts) The DOW was hit on the open of the US session to give back the European gains. Price held below 32920 but also held a minor RTF (double bottom) at 32785. Would expect another flush higher in the European or US session and then more profit taking ahead of US CPI. The US Tech 100 came under pressure after clearing out stops above 13345. Price fell over but momentum down did start to ease into the US close below 13200. Like the DOW, watching for another flush higher later in the European/US session so want to see a higher low hold. The Hang Seng moved down again during the Day session and then held below 20125 in the overnight session. Wanting to see 20125 hold the action down today and price to move down below 19950 so watching for a lower high to hold. The Nikkei failed to move into major resistance at 28385 and held 28335 for a move down in the US session. The trend up remains in tact so we may expect another drive higher today to continue with the recent momo up. Watching for a test into 28095 and for a higher low. If price instead flushes higher and holds a key lower high, could expect to see a decent selloff as longs unwind.
Cryptos came under pressure from the start of the US session as share Indexes went risk off. Bitcoin held 24060 and is holding a lower high which could lead to a further move down into 23655 to clear out some buyers. Ethereum remains in an uptrend but struggling to hold above the EMAs. Watching for a lower high to hold and for a squeeze on buyers and move down.
Spot Gold edged higher as the USD came under pressure. Price moved above 1779 early and consolidated the minor gains into the US close. For me, it is all about the USD so any tick higher into the USD and we will see gold squeeze out the buyers down to 1779. Crude Oil moved up into 90.52 but is starting to struggle as the momentum up slows. Expecting a move down to squeeze out some buyers but I am on guard for a spike up into 92.27. USD Index moved down below 106.475 but bounced back in the US session as share markets fell over. The 106.475 level is key for me as to whether we see price work down lower again off the level or reclaim back above. I expect that price will hold below tonight ahead of US CPI tomorrow. USDJPY did react lower off 135.688 so now I am watching for a lower high to hold for a move down to break the recent minor uptrend off 131.451.
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