Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR WEDNESDAY 10/08/22
US Indexes weighed down by Tech shares after another profit warning from Chipmaker Micron on expected easing in consumer spending…which comes after Nvidia’s revenue warning yesterday. Major indexes followed on from where they left off the previous session and moved lower from the open as more buyers locked in some gains ahead of tonights CPI data release prior to the US open. The USD moved down in European trade to clear out some dollar bulls, before moving back up in the US session. I expect that the USD will be contained ahead of the CPI release as traders more than likely have already positioned themselves accordingly. US Bond yields moved up which suggest that many are expecting a strong CPI number and potentially for it to exceed expectations which would mean that the US Fed has to be more aggressive on rate rises. Japan PPI at 9:50am AEST, China CPI and PPI at 11:30am AEST, US CPI at 10:30pm AEST, US Wholesale Inventories at 12am AEST and Crude Oil Inventories at 12:30am AEST.
Market Price Action saw some profit taking on the US open again but I do expect more range bound Asian market action today after the risk off tone overnight.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 30/35 points as the SPI200 moved lower off major resistance through the European and US sessions.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures down 39 pts to 6892
SP500 down 17.59 pts to 4122.47
NASDAQ Composite down 150.53 pts to 12493.93
Dow Jones down 58.13 pts to 32774.41
FTSE100 up 5.78 pts to 7488.15
DAX30 down 152.72 pts to 13534.97
GOLD futures US session (Spot) up $5.21 to $1794.35 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Sep) up $0.0027 to $3.5892 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Sep) down $0.26 to $90.50 a barrel
CRB Index up 2.75 pts to 284.54
AUDUSD trading at 0.6964
EURUSD trading at 1.0213
GBPUSD trading at 1.2076
USDJPY trading at 135.1100
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) down 0.153 to 106.170
The SPI200/ASX200 came under pressure from the open of the European session as major resistance at 6938 held. Price found support at 6884 into the US close which is the key level for me today. The open will show whether there is more profit taking to go and a move into 6870, or whether bulls will lift price up off the level. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW had a choppy session which was generally down. Price held below 32840 but found buyers into 32705. From the overnight action, I do not expect that the DOW will move outside of these levels ahead of the CPI release. The US Tech 100 moved down below 13075 as traders expect a slowdown in growth and demand for tech. Watching the 13075 area for a retest and to potentially hold for a short setup…but I expect this will depend on the CPI release with any major move to come later. The Hang Seng had an interesting session with a spike in the first session and then drop in the second. In overnight trade, sellers continued to pressure lower so I am expecting to see a move down today. Ideally I would like to see a flush up and then a lower high for a move below 19865. If 19865 holds (which is a corresponding low on the Index) then watching for a squeeze higher. The Nikkei had a rough day and then added to the move down in overnight trading. Price held a push down into 27835 so watching to see if this level can hold today and we get a squeeze on sellers and move up.
Cryptos took a good hit at the start of the European session to move down through support levels in a risk off move. Bitcoin has now held major resistance at 24060 for a third time so this could bring in more selling pressure today or tonight. If price breaks down through 22870 convincingly, then watching for a short setup. Ethereum also moved down but held up off support at 1673 to keep the trend up intact. If this levels breaks, expect a good move lower.
Spot Gold failed to kick on through 1795 after reacting lower off the 1800 whole number. Expecting an unwind of longs ahead of the CPI release and a move down off 1795. Crude Oil did not know which way to go as price initially spiked up into 92.27 and then failed lower to end roughly where it started. The key level…and where I expect price to hover around…is 90.52. A break below and I expect a push into 88.50…a break up and I expect a push back up into 92.27. May be a difficult session with CPI and then Oil Inventories to deal with. USD Index just cleared out some traders ahead of the CPI release. Price held below 106.415 which I expect will be the key area for the data release. I do not expect much action prior to the release and would be hesitant to take a position in dollar denominated currencies until after. USDJPY held nicely below the 135.688 area and is primed for a move down…I expect that all will depend on the CPI release…as with most other markets.
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