Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 15/08/22
US Indexes added to recent gains as they ended another week on a high. US indexes are settled into a nice short term uptrend but are stretched. The problem is that everyone is talking interest rate rises and a tightening cycle to pressure markets lower….but it is not going down so bears may be forced to chase the market higher. Oil is pressing lower which would be expected as higher rates may translate into weaker longer term demand especially if many expect that global economies are peaking and will slow in time. Bond yields are moving higher (as bond prices hover around support levels) while the USD has fought back up off recent lows. While trying not to sound like a bear…this still points to lower share markets to me. So why are markets heading higher?…it seems that traders may be looking past the rate rises and flowing into tech again (which is buoying the broader market) which were previously the market darlings in a low interest rate environment. Japan GDP Data at 9:50am AEST, China Retail Sales at 12pm AEST and US Empire State Manufacturing at 10:30pm AEST.
Market Price Action will gap up on open making longs extended. Will be watching for failure to continue up, especially on the SPI200, and some potential squeezes lower.
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 40/45 points as the SPI200 was ramped up into resistance into the US close.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures up 39 pts to 6973
SP500 up 72.88 pts to 4280.15
NASDAQ Composite up 267.28 pts to 13047.19
Dow Jones up 424.38 pts to 33761.05
FTSE100 up 34.98 pts to 7500.89
DAX30 up 101.34 pts to 13795.85
GOLD futures US session (Spot) up $12.77 to $1802.29 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Sep) down $0.0282 to $3.6783 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Sep) down $2.25 to $92.09 a barrel
CRB Index down 1.58 pts to 293.48
AUDUSD trading at 0.7121
EURUSD trading at 1.0259
GBPUSD trading at 1.2138
USDJPY trading at 133.4200
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) up 0.556 to 105.550
The SPI200/ASX200 ramped higher into resistance at 6980. Price action is extended so we may see some profit taking on the open as momentum up stalls. Watching for a lower high off the 6980 area ideally after a flush of the level to trap some buyers. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW had a minor flush lower at the start of the US session before ramping higher into the close. I am not interested in getting long until there has been a squeeze lower to flush out some late buyers. Price is extended but could easily extend up into 34155 prior to some profit taking. The US Tech 100 was much the same as the DOW as price extended up into a resistance level at 13573 into the US close. This is the key level for me today to see whether there is the start of a move down or continuation up. Watching for a reaction down off the level and then a lower high for entry or a flush lower to clear out late buyers prior to another leg up. The Hang Seng had an interesting overnight session with price spiking lower before finding a bid at 19905 to ramp straight back up. Longer term, prices are holding between 20375 and 19520 and correcting off the 20375 area. Watching for a lower high to hold and price to flush lower. The Nikkei followed on from a strong Asian market session with a strong US session. Price held a higher low at 28570, into resistance at 28730, which is the current anchor for the move up. Watching for an initial flush higher and then some profit taking from bulls to trigger a short a entry and squeeze lower.
Cryptos edged higher on the weekend but did reject a push up into new highs so we may see some unwinding of longs today. Watching both Ethereum and Bitcoin to work lower off a lower high with BTC pushing back below 24060 and ETH down off 1943.
Spot Gold held a higher low at 1784 before pushing back up into recent highs around 1801. I expect that the will be some long covering for a move down off the level as the USD hovers around highs. Crude Oil held 94.85 for a major lower high to continue the recent daily trend lower. Watching for a move down below 91.24 and potentially into 88.50 support. USD Index is still in pullback mode on a daily basis holding the trend up. If we see the 105.050 area hold on a daily basis, then I expect to see a squeeze higher. In the short term price is hovering around 105.700 so watching for price to ease lower off the level prior to another move up. USDJPY continues to play out nicely and I remain biased lower in the short term. Price is holding below 134.515 so watching now for a lower high to hold and a push down through 133.112 (more info posted in the Discord Channel).
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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