Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR TUESDAY 16/08/22
US Indexes rallied from the open to continue with the recent trend up on hopes that the Fed can engineer a soft landing for the economy. Better earnings have supported the bulls as companies have mostly surprised investors, who were bracing for the worst, with rosier outlooks. European markets reversed earlier weakness (a flow over from Asian markets) to rally into the US close. Weaker than expected Chinese data weighed on Asian markets, namely the Hang Seng, while the People’s Bank of China unexpectedly cut key interest rates in an effort to stimulate a slowing economy hampered by a downturn in the property market. The news of the interest rate cut sent the USD higher (hitting commodities and FX denominated crosses) and US bond yields lower on some safe haven buying. The news that one of the largest importers of oil is having issues also hit the Oil market sending prices lower on demand concerns. Japan GDP Data at 9:50am AEST, China Retail Sales at 12pm AEST and US Empire State Manufacturing at 10:30pm AEST.
Market Price Action will gap up on open making longs extended. Will be watching for failure to continue up, especially on the SPI200, and some potential squeezes lower.
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 20/25 points after the SPI200 broke up through resistance during the US session.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures up 22 pts to 6996
SP500 up 16.99 pts to 4297.14
NASDAQ Composite up 80.86 pts to 13128.05
Dow Jones up 151.39 pts to 33912.44
FTSE100 up 8.26 pts to 7509.15
DAX30 up 20.76 pts to 13816.61
GOLD futures US session (Spot) down $22.74 to $1779.55 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Sep) down $0.0660 to $3.6025 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Sep) down $2.68 to $89.41 a barrel
CRB Index down 3.94 pts to 289.54
AUDUSD trading at 0.7023
EURUSD trading at 1.0162
GBPUSD trading at 1.2056
USDJPY trading at 133.2800
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) up 0.895 to 106.405
The SPI200/ASX200 managed to brush aside earlier European market weakness and rally into the US close to again end higher in overnight trade. Price moved above a key level at 6980 so watching to see if it can hold above and add to the gains or whether we fail back below the level today. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW continues higher on expectations for a soft landing and rate cuts down the track. Price bounced nicely off 33525 but extended into the US close so I will need to see some late buyers flushed out of the action prior to any higher low holding and long entry setup. Expecting that the bulls are targeting 34155. The US Tech 100 was well contained in the European session before ramping higher in the US session up through 13573. Like the DOW, I expect that bulls will target higher into 13767 so watching for a grind lower then a higher low to hold. The Hang Seng came under pressure after the Chinese data release but buyers held 19975 and were supported to some extent by the rate cuts. I expect that the key levels for the day are 20220 and 19975 and I feel that there will be more selling pressure today considering the housing market issues China has which the rate cuts admit too. The Nikkei remains strong as it has been bough up each session. We did see some profit taking off 28905 down into 28640 before the bounce back up into the US close. Watching 28905 again today to see if the RTF (double top) holds and triggers some sellers into action today.
Cryptos came under pressure as the USD rallied with both Bitcoin and Ethereum looking set to hold a lower high and continue down. BTC is holding below 24305 so I am watching for a push below 23915 into 22450 while ETH is holding below 1943 so I am looking for a break below 1862.
Spot Gold initially pushed up into 1802 and then nosedived down through 1784 which it held below into the close. Price action continues to look heavy and I will be watching for a lower high and test into 1764 as long as price holds below 1784. Crude Oil took a hit on the USD rally to continue the move lower. Price spiked into major support around 88.50 so I expect some choppy price action around the level. Bears will be trying to push prices lower while bulls will be defending the level. Watching for a higher low and potential for a short squeeze and move up. USD Index found some love after the surprise rate cut from the PBOC which sent FX majors lower. The dollar pushed up into resistance at 106.415 and may look to extend on the move up into 106.810 today. Watching the action around the 106.415 zone for some guidance. USDJPY was pushed lower during European trade before bouncing back from the start of the US session. Price action is holding lower highs but the rally into the USD is constraining a potential move lower. Still, looking for a lower high and push into 131.451 in time as I expect some buyers to come out of the USD and lock in some gains.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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