Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are SPI/N225 at 10am, HSI at 11:15/30am, DAX and UK100 at 4/5pm and DOW and USTech100 at 10:30/11:30pm .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR WEDNESDAY 24/08/22
US Indexes were relatively well contained after the selling pressure from the previous few sessions eased. Traders are trying to decipher what the Fed may do with interest rates with some expecting a more aggressive rate rising strategy of 0.75% rise while others expect half a percent rise. PMI Services data out overnight only muddied the waters more as it came out weaker than expected and showed a slowing economy. The USD fell away from highs while bond prices spiked but later paired the gains into the US close. Everything is still pointing to a mixed market and uncertainty towards the path of the Fed and rate rises. This means that the share market may still see some chop as bulls and bears fight it out longer term. Oil rallied after Saudi Arabia floated the idea of output cuts from OPEC…this may only add to inflation concerns as the US ay be bracing for higher energy prices into winter as Natural Gas prices surge. US Durable Goods Orders at 10:30pm AEST, US Pending Home Sales at 12am and US Oil Inventories at 12:30am AEST.
I expect that the market open in Asia may be muted but potentially biased up as bargain hunters provide support.
The ASX200 is expected to open relatively FLAT after the SPI200 held in a narrow range for most of the US session.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures up 15 pts to 6880
SP500 down 9.26 pts to 4128.73
NASDAQ Composite down 0.27 pts to 12381.30
Dow Jones down 154.02 pts to 32909.59
FTSE100 down 45.68 pts to 7488.11
DAX30 down 36.34 pts to 13194.23
GOLD futures US session (Spot) up $12.10 to $1747.98 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Sep) up $0.0330 to $3.6845 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Sep) up $3.38 to $93.74 a barrel
CRB Index up 3.48 pts to 296.31
AUDUSD trading at 0.6927
EURUSD trading at 0.9970
GBPUSD trading at 1.1830
USDJPY trading at 136.7600
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) down 0.481 to 108.500
The SPI200/ASX200 was well contained between 6870 and 6882 for most of the US session as uncertainty remains for traders. I expect that the open will be choppy with both levels flushed before a potential direction plays out….if any. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW held a lower high at 33150 during the European session and moved down to hold below 32975 into the US close. Even though momentum down is easing, I expect a grind down into 32740 but will not hold out hope for clear price action setups ahead of the US open. The US Tech 100 was relatively choppy and held below 12960. The momentum is in a prime position to rollover for a continuation trade down so looking for a lower high to see if sellers take price below 12820 into 12655. The Hang Seng also had a choppy night session after pushing lower during the Asian market. Price action spent most of the time trading around major support at 19505. Price did reject a flush into the days lows at 19362 which could be an indication of some strength to come today. Watching for a squeeze higher to clear out some sellers. The Nikkei pretty much went sideways in overnight trade after a weak Asian market session. Key levels for me for the open are 28455 and 28570. Wanting to see price flush lower on the open and then find a bid to rally later in the session…this would match up with the underlying index testing into support.
Cryptos held support to edge there way higher but bulls were generally capped by the lack off follow through into the US share market rally. Ethereum is pushing up into 1673 which I will be watching for either price to rollover and press back down into 1583 or a continued grind up. Bitcoin is starting to look heavy below resistance at 21670 so watching for a minor lower high to hold.
Spot Gold found some love on the back of the USD weakness. Price flushed 1734 (mentioned in the US Trading Plan report) before holding the level and spiking higher. Price action is extended so looking for a grind lower off 1754 especially if the USD starts to find support. Crude Oil had a good spike higher into 94.12 highs on potential OPEC output cuts. Price action is extended so I would expect to see a squeeze lower off the level (potentially after a flush and fail above) prior to any continuation up. USD Index reacted lower off Daily highs around 109.260 and looks set to hold a lower high to squeeze out more bulls. The trend remains up but we may just be seeing a flush lower ahead of Fridays Jackson Hole Symposium.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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