Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are SPI/N225 at 10am, HSI at 11:15/30am, DAX and UK100 at 4/5pm and DOW and USTech100 at 10:30/11:30pm .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR THURSDAY 25/08/22
US Indexes had a well contained session as prices held around the lows after the recent selling pressure eased. The consolidation is to be expected ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium Friday. Still, bulls are not willing yet to change the trend and push key Indexes higher. The USD Index is hovering around the daily highs and consolidating the level while US bond yields rallied overnight after Core Durable goods orders came in slightly better than expected. The data release kept a lid on share market bulls and makes the speech from Powell at the Symposium more of a focus as data suggests that high inflation levels are hanging around. Higher energy prices is still playing havoc in Europe and supporting high inflation which is translating into higher bond yields and pressure for share markets. German Final GDP at 4pm AEST, German ifo Business Climate at 6pm, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 9:30pm, US Prelim GDP and Unemployment Claims at 10:30pm and Day 1 of Jackson Hole.
I expect that the market open in Asia may be muted but potentially biased up as bargain hunters provide support. All focus is on Powell and US interest rates but I do not expect to hear of an aggressive Fed as Powell will not want to spook the markets.
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 25/30 points after the SPI200 held higher lows to move up into the US close.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures up 31 pts to 6934
SP500 up 12.04 pts to 4140.77
NASDAQ Composite up 50.23 pts to 12431.53
Dow Jones up 59.64 pts to 32969.23
FTSE100 down 16.60 pts to 7471.51
DAX30 up 25.83 pts to 13220.06
GOLD (Spot) up $3.50 to $1751.48 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Sep) down $0.0570 to $3.6385 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Oct) up $1.15 to $94.89 a barrel
CRB Index up 2.55 pts to 298.86
AUDUSD trading at 0.6905
EURUSD trading at 0.9967
GBPUSD trading at 1.1794
USDJPY trading at 137.1200
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) up 0.011 to 108.565
The SPI200/ASX200 is back to its old tricks as price was ramped higher in overnight trade to setup for a positive ASX200 open. I expect to see a grind higher today into 6949 and potentially higher and then for weakness into the close. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW is still just correcting up off 32740 and is still not looking too convincing of a rally. I would like to see a retest and hold of the lows before seeing a rally…but expect that traders are waiting on Powell and further direction on interest rates. The US Tech 100 is looking more positive than the DOW as price holds support and breaks the minor downtrend. We may see a flush lower but I generally expect price to hold above 12820 and grind higher. The Hang Seng took a hit on the open yesterday into 19200 and then edged its way up off the level in aftermarket trading. I expect to see a flush higher to clear out some sellers as the Underlying Index is at support but still in a trend down…may be a choppy day. The Nikkei underlying index also pushed into potential support yesterday and then rallied in overnight trading. Watching the 28445 level on the open to see if buyers defend it or let it break for a flush lower.
Cryptos continue to correct higher up off support but the price action is far from convincing that we are going to see a big rally. Bitcoin is holding a minor higher low at 21275 but is finding pressure into 21670. Watching for a minor flush lower and then a further grind higher. Ethereum is much the same as price is struggling around 1673 resistance. Also watching for a flush lower and then a minor higher low to hold for a grind up.
Spot Gold is being held between 1754 and 1744. Bulls looks set to press price up through 1754 as the higher low holds at 1744 although this will depend on the USD action easing lower off highs which I do not expect until Powells speech. Crude Oil had a very choppy European and US session as price flushed lower and then was bought straight back up again. Price held a higher low around 93.15 and I expect that this level will hold for another move up considering that OPEC talking production cuts and the energy crisis to provide support. USD Index is holding up around the Daily highs from previously and I expect that bulls will be happy to consolidate the level prior to further news on the Feds rate rising strategy. I do not expect too much tonight but we may see a flush lower to clear out some buyers. The rally into bond yields should provide support.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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