Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are SPI/N225 at 10am, HSI at 11:15/30am, DAX and UK100 at 4/5pm and DOW and USTech100 at 10:30/11:30pm .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR TUESDAY 30/08/22
US Indexes held up off the lows in a very choppy market. Bulls managed to fend off another leg lower which is common the day after a trend day. Prices opened weaker after the Asian and European markets came under further pressure but managed to close the gap from the open. One thing to note is the intraday action was limited to day traders which is highlighted by the flush lower into the close as longs exited. The USD edged lower off daily resistance while US Bond yields hovered around lows. Oil may be a problem for share market bulls as prices ramped higher to add to inflation concerns. If oil continues to move into new highs, then traders will see this as inflationary and take their frustrations out on share prices. The general theme is that interest rates will be ‘higher for longer’ so upcoming economic data releases will be the focus. AUS Building Approvals at 11:30am AEST, EUR German Prelim CPI at ‘All Day’, US Consumer Confidence and Jolts Job Openings at 12am AEST and FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 1am.
Asian markets may be choppy as European and the US look to be in correction mode higher. Price action is choppy and holding up off lows so I will be watching for more of a grind today but weary of a flush into lows.
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 20 points after the SPI200 managed to fend off sellers and grind higher off lows.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures up 18 pts to 6896
SP500 down 27.05 pts to 4030.61
NASDAQ Composite down 124.04 pts to 12017.67
Dow Jones down 184.41 pts to 32098.99
DAX30 down 78.48 pts to 12892.99
GOLD (Spot) down $0.51 to $1737.53 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0970 to $3.6000 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Oct) up $3.95 to $97.01 a barrel
CRB Index up 2.66 pts to 301.75
AUDUSD trading at 0.6900
EURUSD trading at 0.9998
GBPUSD trading at 1.1704
USDJPY trading at 138.7200
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) down 0.006 to 108.745
The SPI200/ASX200 had a grinding choppy night as price corrected higher off yesterdays lows. Price is holding minor higher lows although lacking conviction from buyers…more of short covering that providing support. Watching the 6908 level to hold for a lower high short into lows or a continued grind up. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW closed the gap into 32237 and then flushed lower into the US close. Seems that the bulk of the movement was from day traders who exited longs into the close. Momentum is in a prime position to flush lower and price test into the lows to see the conviction of bears. The US Tech 100 was much the same as the DOW with a gap close and 12575 holding the action down. Momo is also in a prime position to flush lower into lows which I expect is what the bulls will want to see before looking for longs. The Hang Seng did not open as weak as Nikkei and ASX200 yesterday and fended off sellers from the open and into the US close. For any long, I want to see a flush lower to clear out some of the overnight buyers. For a short, I will be looking for a lower high and move below 20010. The Nikkei moved into 27770 as price was hit hard from the open yesterday. Since trading into the lows, price has recovered well but seems heavy again at 28055. Like the HSI, I will need to see a failed push higher and a lower high for a short or a flush lower and then a higher low hold for a long.
Cryptos were much the same as the major share indexes as prices grinded higher lacking bullish conviction….seemed like short covering rather than new longs jumping into the action. Ethereum did well to close the gap up to 1544 where it has currently stalled. Watching ETH for a flush lower off a lower high. Bitcoin did not manage to close the gap into 20540 so may pop higher today. Still, watching for a squeeze lower into 19570.
Spot Gold spiked to squeeze out some sellers as the USD faded off daily highs. The USD does not look ready to move lower anytime soon so I expect Gold to fade down off 1739. Crude Oil held a higher low around 93.13 to push straight up through 95.20 which I expect weighed on the share markets into the US close. Expecting continuation up into 97.83 or potentially 99.70. Price is extended so Oil may need to flush lower to clear out some buyers before another leg up. USD Index tested into daily highs around 109.300 before fading into the US close. Price continues to be supported above 107.560 and I expect that this may continue into tonights economic data release. The USDJPY continues to move up on the USD strength and the ‘lack of’ any pressure on YEN shorts. Watching the 139.410 level to see if it holds or not. If price clears the level convincingly, then I will re-assess the short opportunity.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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