Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are SPI/N225 at 10am, HSI at 11:15/30am, DAX and UK100 at 4/5pm and DOW and USTech100 at 10:30/11:30pm .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR FRIDAY 2/09/22
US Indexes edged their way higher from a weak open after a rough European session. Europe continues to be concerned with the Energy crisis and higher inflationary levels which has spiked the cost of living and weighing on markets. The US session was more of a grind to squeeze out sellers ahead of the key employment data release. Stronger than expected Unemployment claims and Manufacturing data (along with a safe haven bid) shoved the USD up through major resistance and continued to pressure Copper, Oil and Bonds lower. The continued strength into the economic data highlights the need for faster rate rises which I feel will continue to weigh on share markets in the near term until the Fed shows they are serious about reducing inflation. US Non-Farm Employment Claims and Unemployment Rate at 10:30pm AEST .
Asian markets set to open mixed as traders await US employment Data. I do not expect a big move either way but will be looking for an early squeeze on sellers.
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 10 points after the SPI200 brushed aside weakness in the European session to rally into the US close.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures up 20 pts to 6817
SP500 up 11.85 pts to 3966.85
NASDAQ Composite down 31.07 pts to 11785.13
Dow Jones up 145.99 pts to 31656.42
FTSE100 down 135.65 pts to 7148.50
DAX30 down 204.73 pts to 12630.23
GOLD (Spot) down $13.71 to $1697.33 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.1105 to $3.4080 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Oct) down $2.94 to $86.61 a barrel
CRB Index down 5.79 pts to 284.62
AUDUSD trading at 0.6787
EURUSD trading at 0.9946
GBPUSD trading at 1.1540
USDJPY trading at 140.2100
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) up 0.972 to 109.637
The SPI200/ASX200 managed to fight back from a negative open overnight and ended the US session with minor gains. Price is still holding a downtrend and the run up is a little extended. I expect that we may see a squeeze higher on the open before a drift lower into the close as I would not expect traders to add risk ahead of US employment data and the weekend…but stranger things have happened. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW moved lower through the European session before moving back up in US trade. I expected there will be a squeeze on sellers to clear a few out ahead of the data release and I expect we will see a contained market today and through European trade. The US Tech 100 managed to move up off 12067 and through 12234 into the US close. This was an intraday squeeze as the trend down remains in tact and held down at 12457. Like the DOW, I do not expect a big move either way just algos working over the bids and offers intraday before the big number. The Hang Seng drifted lower in overnight trading but managed to hold above 19636. Price action is still finding selling pressure but I do expect that a major base has been put in place on the underlying index. Watching to see if 19655 is broken for a move higher. The Nikkei held relatively steady and range bound through European markets and then rallied along with the US into the close. Price action is extended so may need to flush lower prior to another leg up but with the trend down holding, I expect a contained market or minor weakness.
Cryptos basically went sideways in a ranging market. Ethereum held 1533 and broke up and out of the recent downtrend although is holding below 1607 which I expect needs to be broken to drag in serious bulls for a move up. Bitcoin is ranging sideways for now between 20540 and 19570. BTC is still holding a minor downtrend off 20540 and I expect that this may hold for a push lower into 19815 or 19570.
Spot Gold touched into daily support around 1685 before bouncing which is expected being a big level. The trend down is still in tact and I expect to see another spike lower and more chop around support as it entices new buyers and some profit taking. Crude Oil continues to come under pressure with rate rise expectations. Price has pushed down into some major support around 86.40 which I expect will see the action heat up. Watching for a flush of the level to trap some sellers prior to a squeeze higher. USD Index spiked up and through 109.300 as inflation concerns continue. US economic data remains robust which means inflation is not coming down anytime soon…so dollar bulls continue to adjust higher. Price is extended so I am watching for a potential trap of buyers and a ‘buy the rumour sell the fact’ move after the employment release but that means that the numbers need to come out inline or weaker….stronger and we may see a very bad end to the week.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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