Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are SPI/N225 at 10am, HSI at 11:15/30am, DAX and UK100 at 4/5pm and DOW and USTech100 at 10:30/11:30pm .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR FRIDAY 9/09/22
US Indexes had a choppy session as bulls and bears fought it out with bulls seeming to come out on top for now. The US rallied into the close after fending off a selloff from the open after Powell said the Fed is ‘strongly committed’ to controlling inflation…ie more aggressive rate rises to come. He did not really say anything new and it seems that the market is happy with the focused stance on inflation. The ECB raised a record 0.75%, also highlighting a more aggressive stance going forward, triggering US and European bargain hunters to provide support expecting a soft landing and a mild ‘fed induced recession’. From the stronger than expected close, expectations seem to be favouring continued growth but at a slower pace…although the move higher in bond yields may be pointing to a different story still and some more pressure to come. Recently, we have seen delayed reactions to negative stock market news, so considering the daily trends are still down, a cautious approach is still expected. CNY CPI and PPI Data at 11:30am AEST, ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 7:30pm AEST, CAD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate at 10:30pm and US FOMC Members George and Waller Speak at 12am AEST.
Asian markets will be mixed on opens with the ASX flat, Nikkei up and Hang Seng slightly down. Expecting a choppy session into the weekend and watching the SPI200 for an initial flush higher.
The ASX200 is expected to open FLAT after earlier losses on the SPI were brushed aside with the US rally into the close.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures flat to 6845
SP500 up 26.31 pts to 4006.18
NASDAQ Composite up 70.23 pts to 11862.13
Dow Jones up 193.24 pts to 31774.52
FTSE100 up 24.23 pts to 7262.06
DAX30 down 11.65 pts to 12904.32
GOLD (Spot) down $9.93 to $1708.49 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.1240 to $3.5545 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Oct) up $1.60 to $83.54
CRB Index up 1.79 pts to 278.31
AUDUSD trading at 0.6750
EURUSD trading at 0.9998
GBPUSD trading at 1.1502
USDJPY trading at 144.1100
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) down 0.182 to 109.650
The SPI200/ASX200 had another mixed session with an initial push lower through European trade and then a rally into the US close. Price held at the 6848 resistance level into the close and I expect this to be flushed on the open as the lack of follow through to the downside in US Indexes after Powells speech will give bulls some confidence. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW had a choppy session with bulls adamant in providing support and lifting price into the close. The long term bias is down while short term is up and held at 31615. I will not look to get involved until there is clearer price action but would be expecting a long into 31980. The US Tech 100 was also very choppy with a minor higher low holding at 12230 and major down at 12140. As price action to me remains unclear and could go lower as easily as higher, I want to see a minor pullback to hold above 12230 for a long into 12400. The Hang Seng was sold down during the day session and managed to hold the lows through European and US trading. Price flushed and held 18795 twice which may give buyers some confidence for a positive day. They will need to clear up through 18916 to trigger a short squeeze otherwise we may see a push down through 18795 as the underlying index is trending lower. The Nikkei tested into 27811 to squeeze out the day sessions buyers before rallying up into resistance at 28110. Watching for an extension up through to 28352 but weary of a flush lower into 27975.
Cryptos were choppy but both Bitcoin and Ethereum held higher lows. ETH fended off a push below 1607 while BTC held above 19075. Ethereum looks more bullish than Bitcoin but will need to break up and out of this minor consolidation through 1674 to drag in buyers. Bitcoins key level to push above is 19570 to have a chance of breaking up and out of the longer term downtrend.
Spot Gold was heading higher until the ECB raised rates and which kicked the EUR lower and USD higher. Price continued to sink into 1709 support where it will need to hold to fend off more selling today. Expecting a move down off a lower high as long as 1716 holds but if the USD comes under further pressure today, then we will see a grind higher up off 1709. Crude Oil held the lows around 81.50 after a retest and bounce. Price is in a prime position to continue lower so watching for a lower high. If price holds up then expect a deeper correction of the downtrend and squeeze up into the $85 area. USD Index held below the 110.290 level as it may be loosing some appeal with the ECB raising interest rates. Watching for confirmation that the highs are in place and the recent uptrend has been broken which will be confirmed with a move down through 109.300 and could see some dollar longs unwind.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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