Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are SPI/N225 at 10am, HSI at 11:15/30am, DAX and UK100 at 4/5pm and DOW and USTech100 at 10:30/11:30pm .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 12/09/22
US Indexes ramped higher to end the week with gains as investors shrugged off inflation concerns. Traders will be waiting for the US CPI data out Tuesday which could stir the pot further and trigger some profit taking from recent bulls. The USD moved lower as buyers rebalanced positions and expectations as share markets ran higher. Bonds were generally weaker with the short dated 2-year yield moving up and pressuring the bond into new short term lows. To me this means that near term inflation expectations remain high which I would expect means that the Fed Reserve will be more aggressive with rate rises and go further than expected…making the CPI number release tomorrow important. Share market traders may be looking past this but I feel that it is too early to expect a new leg higher as there remains a lot of uncertainty. CNY Bank Holiday, GBP GDP and Goods Trade Balance at 4pm AEST.
Asian markets will open stronger but also extended making the underlying Index opens key. Happy to wait for the opens to settle before seeing the trade…although cautious of another opening spike on the Hang Seng.
The ASX200 is expected to open UP after it was all one way action up on the SPI200 from the start of the European session through to the US close.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures up 79 pts to 6963
SP500 up 61.18 pts to 4067.36
NASDAQ Composite up 250.18 pts to 12112.31
Dow Jones up 377.19 pts to 32151.71
FTSE100 up 89.01 pts to 7351.07
DAX30 up 183.89 pts to 13088.21
GOLD (Spot) up $8.49 to $1717.23 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.0.280 to $3.5550 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Oct) up $1.60 to $83.54
CRB Index up 5.81 pts to 284.12
AUDUSD trading at 0.6841
EURUSD trading at 1.0042
GBPUSD trading at 1.1589
USDJPY trading at 142.4700
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) down 0.768 to 108.945
The SPI200/ASX200 was one straight move up in the overnight session without a significant pullback. Price pushed up through 6948 into the US close, and if bulls hold the trend up on the open, I expect 6948 to hold. If not, then watching for a lower high and then flush of buyers for a move down. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW held a retest of 31980 to extend on the session gains into the close. I expect that price wants to at least test into 32350 before potentially we see some profit taking and a move lower. The US Tech 100 easily pushed through 12415 to extend into 12622 into the US close. Like the DOW, I am watching this level to see if buyers take some gains and we get a lower high for a sell entry setup. If not, then expecting to see another move up into the US open off a higher low. The Hang Seng had a big push higher to end the week before drifting lower into the US close off 19380. Expecting another leg higher today so watching for an early flush lower into 19195 and then a higher low to hold. Price could also just ramp from the open so in that case, will look for a minor higher low off 19380. The Nikkei had a very strong European and US session to move up through 28373 and set the stage for continuation to 28767. I expect to see pullbacks hold the trend up and higher lows for an entry ideally off 28373 on the open.
Cryptos have opened stronger to follow on from Fridays bullish move up. Prices on both Ethereum and Bitcoin ripped higher with BTC extending up into 21845 highs and potential resistance and ETH moving through 1715 resistance. Both are extended, especially Bitcoin, so I will be hesitant to take a long without a higher low holding. Watching the 21845 level on BTC for a potential reaction lower.
Spot Gold has managed to hold a higher low off 1709 but also found strong resistance at 1727. The USD needs to continue lower for Gold to find a continued bid to push up through 1727 and potentially get a bit of momentum up for a leg higher. Watching to see if bulls can push up and hold another minor higher low for an extension into 1727. Crude Oil has worked its way up off 81.50 lows and is back into a key level around 86.40. This level was the previous daily support so still watching to see if price re-claims above the zone or fails and continues lower. Watching for a move down off a minor lower high below 86.40. USD Index has opened weaker today but remains above 108.463 support. I feel that this is the key level today as we may hold it and see a gap fill higher to the 109.000 zone into the European open. If not, then expecting the pressure lower to continue.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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