Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are SPI/N225 at 10am, HSI at 11:15/30am, DAX and UK100 at 4/5pm and DOW and USTech100 at 10:30/11:30pm .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR TUESDAY 13/09/22
US Indexes posted another strong session ahead of the CPI (Inflation) report ahead of the US open today. Is this another ‘buy the rumour sell the fact move’? At this stage, global markets are biased up and finding bargain hunters chasing prices higher. Traders are expecting a slightly weaker CPI reading which they hope will translate into smaller rate hikes from the Fed. The European session was buoyed by hopes of an end to the Russia/Ukraine war and the positive sentiment flowed into US trade. All eyes will be on CPI and if the data comes out slightly stronger, we may see an unwind of recent buyers as they get squeezed out. Still, inflation remains stubbornly high while share markets remain resilient and Bond Yields high…a mixed bag that we have to currently deal with as traders (a good reminder to trade price not expectations). The volatility index actually rallied in US trade ending up 4.74% which is unusual in a bull market. Bond yields moved higher from short dated to long dated which shows higher inflation expectations…or potentially some buyers covering into the CPI. I feel that either bonds or the share market have it wrong which sets up for an interesting US session. JPY PPI at 9:50am AEST, AUS NAB Business Confidence at 11:30am AEST, EU German Final CPI and GBP Unemployment Rate at 4pm AEST, USD CPI Data at 10:30am and US Fed Budget Balance at 4am AEST.
Asian markets will open stronger after the rally in the US. The HSI will have a volatile open as it plays catchup after being closed for the day.
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 40 pts after another strong session in the US dragged the SPI200 higher.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures up 43 pts to 7000
SP500 up 43.05 pts to 4110.41
NASDAQ Composite up 154.10 pts to 12266.41
Dow Jones up 229.63 pts to 32381.34
FTSE100 up 121.96 pts to 7473.03
DAX30 up 314.06 pts to 13402.27
GOLD (Spot) up $7.40 to $1724.63 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.0480 to $3.6160 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Oct) up $0.99 to $87.78
CRB Index up 3.50 pts to 287.62
AUDUSD trading at 0.6889
EURUSD trading at 1.0124
GBPUSD trading at 1.1682
USDJPY trading at 142.8200
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.687 to 108.045
The SPI200/ASX200 extended on the recent rally in the overnight session after having a relatively contained day session. Price held above the 6992 level and looks to be targeting 7045 highs. Watching for a flush higher through 7009 and then a higher low to hold for the push up. Price may flush the lows at 6992 prior to a rally but recently the opens have been ramped up. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW extended into 32340 into the close which will be the key area today. Expecting price to be choppy around this level ahead of US CPI tonight but do not expect to see a big rally up before the data release. The US Tech 100 held above 12626 but also below 12833. I expect to see a grind higher to test into 12833 ahead of the Data release. The next move will depend on what the CPI figures come out at but their is potential for a long squeeze and move lower. The Hang Seng was closed so expecting some volatility on the open as price action plays catchup to two days of gains in the US. Watching the 19525 level for a potential open target….but could easily be higher. The Nikkei had a fairly contained overnight session but held above 28511. Watching to see if bulls target a push into 28767 today before some potential profit taking as the underlying is extended.
Cryptos had a mixed day with Bitcoin edging higher while Ethereum grinded lower. BTC has moved up into 22600 resistance and held a minor support level and anchor to the move up at 22028. If this level breaks then I expect to see an unwind of longs. ETH worked down off 1764 and is holding around the 1715 zone for now. Watching for either minor higher lows and a long off the level or minor lower highs and a short.
Spot Gold just chopped around waiting for the USD to move. The action was biased up as the USD held below resistance. I do expect Gold to hold above 1712 today but also below 1733. If the USD has a push lower, I expect to see Gold test higher into 1742. Crude Oil extended up off the daily support around 86.40 and moved into the 88.35 zone before easing lower into the US close. Expecting to see more buying pressure today either off 88.35 or after a flush lower into 86.40. USD Index held below 108.463 and does look primed to move lower off the level. Of course, this will depend on CPI which will see some increased volatility into the mix. Until the release, I expect minor pullbacks to be supported and for price action to hold around 108.463.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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