Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are SPI/N225 at 10am, HSI at 11:15/30am, DAX and UK100 at 4/5pm and DOW and USTech100 at 10:30/11:30pm .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR THURSDAY 15/09/22
US Indexes chopped around the lows as bulls managed to fend off another move lower. PPI Core data came out slightly higher than expected which adds pressure to the rate rise narrative although traders were happy with the slight decline in the full number as gas prices fell (which may be due to government supply being pumping into the market). There is more data out tonight in the US that could bring in more volatility but it seems that bulls are playing games into the close again and pumping price higher in an attempt to defend support although the overall sessions price action shows a lack of commitment from both buyers and sellers. The move was also due to day traders, who were hoping for a move down, closing out shorts built up for the session. The USD eased lower but held support while Bonds continued to pressure lower as yields edged higher. Traders are confident that the Fed will raise rates by 0.75% while some are even pointing to a potential 1% rise as they expect the Fed will need to be more aggressive to stem inflation. From todays action, I would expect that the ‘selloff lows’ will hold and see some bargain hunters edge price higher. AUS Employment Change and Unemployment Rate at 11:30am AEST, US Core Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing, Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims ALL AT 10:30pm AEST and USD Industrial Production at 12am.
Asian markets were rangebound in overnight trade and may see more chop on the open. The ASX will have a delayed open due to the futures rollover from the Sept contract to the Dec contract.
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 20 points after the SPI200 had a choppy overnight session but held up off lows.
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 6 pts to 6842
SP500 up 13.32 pts to 3946.01
NASDAQ Composite up 86.11 pts to 11719.68
Dow Jones up 30.12 pts to 31135.09
FTSE100 down 108.56 pts to 7277.30
DAX30 down 160.95 pts to 13028.00
GOLD (Spot) down $4.85 to $1697.46 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0395 to $3.5160 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Oct) up $1.17 to $88.48
CRB Index up 0.56 pts to 286.33
AUDUSD trading at 0.6748
EURUSD trading at 0.9979
GBPUSD trading at 1.1541
USDJPY trading at 143.1600
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.176 to 109.352
The SPI200/ASX200 had a choppy overnight session with price action ranging between 6804 support and 6845 resistance. I expect to see more choppy action and 6845 hold or a test into 6861 to hold the action down. More data out in the US tonight may contain the action today along with a delayed open and local employment data at 11:30am AEST. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW was supported into 31035 twice during the session showing that there are some buyers willing to defend the level. The 31250 level is key for me today which is holding the action down. If the level breaks, then expecting to see a short squeeze and move up. Also expecting any flush into 31035 to be bought up again ahead of the US data release. The US Tech 100 found more support around 12002 potentially from bargain hunters and day traders. Price ended up around 12162 which may continue to hold the action down today. Watching for another flush lower but for the 12002 level to hold…more scalpy than looking for a move down. The Hang Seng went sideways in overnight trade as price fended off selling into 18777. The anchor holding the action down is at 18860 so watching these two levels today. Ideally, watching for a flush of one level to trigger stops and trap traders prior to a reversal in the opposite direction potentially higher. The Nikkei also had a range bound session holding between 28031 resistance and 27797 support. Watching to see a flush of the resistance area and then move down but do expect more range bound action today.
Cryptos also fended off more selling pressure, like US Indexes, with Bitcoin flushing into 19640 late in the session before recovering into the US close. Ethereum also fended off a spike lower and has since broken up through 1633 to clear out some sellers. I expect both to be contained today ahead of the US session open and ETH to move back down into the range.
Spot Gold moved lower again as the USD held a support zone. Gold is at 1698 which is key today to see if sellers flow back into the action for a move down towards 1691 and lower or pressure price up off the level. Crude Oil was supported for a push up through 89.30 before failing back below the level into the close. Watching to see if sellers hold a lower high below 89.30 and pressure price back down. USD Index edged lower into 109.300 as buyers unwound some long positions. Price held the level which may be a sign that the dollar wants to move higher…will depend on the data release ahead of the US open.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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