Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are SPI/N225 at 10am, HSI at 11:15/30am, DAX and UK100 at 4/5pm and DOW and USTech100 at 10:30/11:30pm .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR FRIDAY 16/09/22
US Indexes came under selling pressure from the open and ended around session lows into the close. Short term bond yields moved higher while the USD held highs and failed to correct lower as many expected which hints at another move up. Cryptos were lower, Oil moved down while Gold took a pounding which all points to a risk off tone and a nervous market. Any idea that the Fed will ease its aggressive stance towards interest rate rises has been flushed out of the market as economic data came out weaker that expected. All eyes now are on The Fed Reserves next move and what they hint at for coming rate increases. Traders will be eagerly awaiting the FOMC statement and what Powell has to say about the Feds plan. European markets fended off sellers although they may look to play catchup tonight with the risk off tone into markets. CNY Retail Sales and Industrial Production at 12pm AEST, GBP Retail Sales at 4pm AEST and US Prelim Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations at 12am AEST.
Asian markets will see a tentative open as the overnight action was risk off. The HSI is holding up off support for now but could easily take a hit on the open while the Nikkei and SPI are trending lower.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 50 points as the SPI200 saw a controlled move down overnight and could continue the trend lower into the weekend.
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 50 pts to 6793
SP500 down 44.66 pts to 3901.35
NASDAQ Composite down 167.32 pts to 11552.36
Dow Jones down 173.27 pts to 30961.82
FTSE100 up 4.77 pts to 7282.07
DAX30 down 71.34 pts to 12956.66
GOLD (Spot) down $33.06 to $1664.41 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0465 to $3.4730 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Oct) down $3.38 to $85.10
CRB Index down 5.33 pts to 281.00
AUDUSD trading at 0.6701
EURUSD trading at 0.9997
GBPUSD trading at 1.1468
USDJPY trading at 143.4900
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.059 to 109.430
The SPI200/ASX200 saw a more controlled move lower from the start of the overnight session. Price held lower highs on the way down with the anchor to the move lower at 6803. Expecting weakness at the open as commodities took a hit. For shorts, I want to see a flush higher and then lower high and for longs I want to see failed lows and a higher low. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW held the 31295 resistance area and is now moving lower. Momentum is in a prime position to expand down for a good selloff and move into 30390. Watching lower timeframes for lower highs to hold today. The US Tech 100 held the 12180 level as a major lower high and is now breaking down. Same plan of attack as with the DOW, watching pullbacks to get sold into and for the price action to move lower. The Hang Seng actually held up well considering the other major indexes were sold lower. Could be that traders are waiting for the Index open to unload and pressure lower or the recent selloff is running out of steam. Watching the 18746 level to be key today to either hold for a squeeze up or fail for a move down. The Nikkei was a lot like the SPI200 as price held lower highs into the US close. Price action has now broken down out of recent consolidation so watching to see if lower highs continue to hold for a move down today.
Cryptos went risk off to flush below support levels but both Bitcoin and Ethereum are extended to the downside so may see some bargain hunting support today. BTC looks more bearish than ETH and could easily expand lower today through 19640 while Ethereum has broken support and now trending down.
Spot Gold took a big hit as bears unloaded on the precious metal and sent price spiking below daily support around 1677. Because it is such a big level, I expect that buyers will be looking to provide some liquidity and get price back above 1675. Either way, I and not looking at shorting considering the extended price action but it is also too early for buying. Crude Oil also took a hit on expectations of easing demand. Price pushed down below 85.05 where it is currently holding. The move down is being held at 85.85 so price could easily continue down into 81.50 lows. Bulls will need to break the anchor down at 85.85 before we can expect a squeeze higher. USD Index consolidated the recent CPI spike up and is holding above 109.300. To me this is a good sign that price is building for another run higher potentially up through 110.698 which will not be good for the general market.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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