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Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are SPI/N225 at 10am, HSI at 11:15/30am, DAX and UK100 at 4/5pm and DOW and USTech100 at 10:30/11:30pm .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 19/09/22
US Indexes fended off further selling with a rally into the close Friday. Price opened down but managed to hold a double bottom and find some buyers in the final hour of the session. The USD continued to hold the highs and consolidate the recent gains which I expect will continue ahead of the FOMC release Thursday. All eyes will be on how the Fed Reserve attacks inflation and interest rate rises. News outlets are again talking up recession in an attempt to spook investors. The Bond market put the squeeze on shorts with a move lower in yields. Cryptos, namely Bitcoin and Ethereum, were weaker over the weekend with ETH taking a hit. Many have dubbed the selloff into Ethereum as the ‘Floppening’ after it was expected to rally strong after The Merge. This may be due to it now coming into the crosshairs of the SEC in the US as it may be considered a ‘security’ not a ‘commodity’. Gold managed to grind its way higher on some bargain hunting while Oil was flat. Japan Bank Holiday, NZ RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 1pm AEST and GBP Bank Holiday.
CLICK HERE FOR ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST) 19/09/22
Asian markets may be flat as overnight action Friday was relatively contained. Happy to watch the opening action to gain some direction.
The ASX200 is expected to open FLAT to DOWN 5 points after the SPI200 had a late rally to brush aside some earlier losses.
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 2 pts to 6737
SP500 down 28.02 pts to 3873.33
NASDAQ Composite down 103.96 pts to 11448.40
Dow Jones down 139.40 pts to 30822.42
FTSE100 down 45.39 pts to 7236.68
DAX30 down 215.40 pts to 12741.26
GOLD (Spot) up $10.92 to $1675.40 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.0515 to $3.5415 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Oct) up $0.01 to $85.11
CRB Index down 2.13 pts to 278.88
AUDUSD trading at 0.6716
EURUSD trading at 1.0016
GBPUSD trading at 1.1420
USDJPY trading at 142.9200
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.060 to 109.392
The SPI200/ASX200 a higher low hold at 6713 which dragged in some buyers to squeeze out the sellers into the US close. There is a minor level at 6737 which I expect to be flushed on the open then will be looking for a lower high. Price may extend up into 6749 but I do expect any decent buying to be contained. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW floundered between 30390 support and 30883 resistance. The key level today is the 30883 area to either hold and resume the longer term downtrend or price action to hold a higher low for a short squeeze. The US Tech 100 found support intraday Friday at 11715. Price may look to drag in buyers to trap them for another leg down so will need to stay below 11926. If we see price hold above the EMAs, a rally and squeeze higher may be on the cards. The Hang Seng is grinding lower and held a lower high in US trade around 18755. The momentum is down although it is not strong and the next lows to target are down at 18180. I will be watching for an opening flush higher and then a lower high but will be on guard for lows to hold and then a squeeze higher (like Fridays price action). The Nikkei found buyers to support 27433 and the anchor down is at 27580 which I expect to be broken on the open today. Recent momentum is up so we may see some buyers today to support price so watching for a higher low and run up…but 27580 will need to be cleared first.
Cryptos are under pressure especially Ethereum much to the surprise of many crypto enthusiasts. Ethereum looks set to test into 1273 to squeeze out more bulls after a negative weekend of trade. Bitcoin is holding a lower high below 19610 so I expect that this will pressure buyers today for a move lower.
Spot Gold has flushed below a key Daily support area and is now bouncing on some bargain hunting. Price triggered the stops below 1677 so may now be happy to grind higher. The key level that bulls will need to break is 1691. If price does grind higher and then holds below that level than we may see a trapping of longs for another flush down. Crude Oil is holding above the $85 zone for now but is in a prime position to hold a major lower high for another leg down into 81.50. I feel that the action will be late in the European session so watching for price action to stay below 86.48 today. USD Index is holding nicely above 109.300 as I feel that traders are awaiting to see how the US Fed reserve attacks inflation. I expect we may see 109.300 tested but for price to hold above the level. May see a flush up also potentially into resistance around 110.290.
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SPI200 Index
ASX200 Index
DOW Index
US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
Nikkei Index
Spot Gold
Crude Oil
USD Index
Bitcoin
Ethereum
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