Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are SPI/N225 at 10am, HSI at 11:15/30am, DAX and UK100 at 4/5pm and DOW and USTech100 at 10:30/11:30pm .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR WEDNESDAY 21/09/22
US Indexes ended lower although did find some buyers again into the close. The action looked to be dominated by intraday traders as investors were happy to remain on the sidelines ahead of FOMC statement out during the coming US session. As expected the USD pushed to the top of the recent range which it held into the close while US bond yields moved higher. German PPI data released came in a lot more positive than expected which highlights the continuing inflationary problems global markets are facing and keeps pressure on the ECB to keep raising rates and get inflation under control. Markets reacted with general nervousness for inflation across the board as Oil, Copper and Gold were all down. It seems like markets are not believing Central Banks rhetoric and see inflationary economic data far from moving the right way…many now expect the Fed to take a much more aggressive stance which is being reflected in the USD and Bonds while share markets play catchup. AUD RBA Deputy Gov Bullock Speaks at 12pm AEST, USD Existing Home Sales at 12am AEST, USD FOMC Statement and Fed Funds Rate at 4am AEST and FOMC Press Conference at 4:30am AEST.
Asian markets moved lower in overnight trading to give back any gains from the Day session. Expect a weak open and markets to flush lower before potentially finding a bid.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 70 pts as the SPI200 gave back all of the day sessions gains plus more.
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 77 pts to 6737
SP500 down 43.96 pts to 3855.93
NASDAQ Composite down 109.97 pts to 11425.05
Dow Jones down 313.45 pts to 30706.23
FTSE100 down 44.02 pts to 7192.66
DAX30 down 132.41 pts to 12670.83
GOLD (Spot) down $10.99 to $1664.82 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0145 to $3.4980 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Oct) down $1.28 to $84.45
CRB Index down 0.24 pts to 279.54
AUDUSD trading at 0.6692
EURUSD trading at 0.9971
GBPUSD trading at 1.1380
USDJPY trading at 143.7300
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.454 to 109.920
The SPI200/ASX200 flushed the 6804 level on the overnight session open but then fell apart to move down. Price did find some buyers around the 6706 support area but is holding lower highs. Expecting to see a weak open on the ASX and potentially another flush down into support. I do not expect buyers to provide a lot of support today ahead of FOMC and a public holiday tomorrow. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW had a choppy session lacking direction ahead of FOMC which is to be expected. Price flushed into support around 30497 which held and then kicked higher into minor resistance at 30795. Expecting to see a grind lower today along with weakness in Asian markets. The US Tech 100 also had a choppy session with a lack of any clear direction. Price held support into 11779 but now looks set to hold a lower high below the EMAs. Like the DOW, I expect to see a grind lower into the European open. The Hang Seng had a good selloff into the close and held up off a minor level at 18564. Price action may need to flush out sellers prior to another leg down so watching for an opening spike and then for a lower high to hold. The Nikkei fell apart in overnight trade to follow on from a disappointing day session for bulls. Price reacted up off 27355 but I expect a flush down to retest the level on the open. The anchor to the downtrend is at 27532 which may also see some action today if price spikes out of the gate to clear out some sellers.
Cryptos spent all three sessions grinding lower finding no love from buyers. I expect that traders are happy to stay on the sidelines awaiting a clearer direction from share markets. Bias for both Bitcoin and Ethereum is down with price action searching for support. Watching for BTC to flush 18810 and then hold back above the level ahead of FOMC while looking for ETH to push into 1273. I do not expect any big moves until the FOMC statement.
Spot Gold held in a range between 1680 and 1660 with price ending down near support. I expect that Gold will continue to hold within the range and potentially grind up off 1660 ahead of FOMC considering its focus on the USD. Crude Oil has flushed down through 84.05 before bouncing back to the level where it is currently consolidating. Price remains looking heavy which makes sense considering the inflationary fears. Watching for a potential move down to test into the 81.20 zone. If not, expect a rip back up into 85.95. USD Index moved up off 109.300 to the top end of the recent range at 110.290. I expect that price will chop around the highs prior to FOMC potentially flushing up into 110.698 but ultimately remaining bias up. With the ECB facing more aggressive rate rises also, flows into the Euro may cap USD gains in the near term.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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