Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are SPI/N225 at 10am, HSI at 11:15/30am, DAX and UK100 at 4/5pm and DOW and USTech100 at 10:30/11:30pm .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR FRIDAY 23/09/22
US Indexes opened weaker and held the losses into the close as buyer are happy to remain on the sidelines. Bond yields continue to pressure higher as traders re-adjust their rate rise outlook higher for longer which in turn will continue to pressure share markets and expectations for growth. The USD is holding highs and set to continue up but may find some pressure as the BOJ intervenes in currency markets to stop the weakness into the YEN…which is turn means a short squeeze and some selling into USD. Still the general bias for the USD is up as long as inflation remains high. The BOE raised interest rates as expected 0.5% which saw the Pound chop around but ultimately remain down. With Putins latest threats to Western Countries and the fear weighing on share markets, I do not expect to see a move higher anytime soon and feel the US wants to test into support levels into the weekend. JPY Bank Holiday, EUR French Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI at 5:15pm AEST, EUR German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI at 65:30m AEST, GBP Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI at 6:30pm, USD Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI at 11:45pm and Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 4am AEST.
Asian markets held the day sessions lows so expecting more weakness today into the weekend. The ASX200 will play catchup, after being closed yesterday, and see a choppy open.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 70 points (from Wednesdays close) after the SPI200 opened the night session and came under pressure into the US close.
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 17 pts to 6628
SP500 down 31.94 pts to 3757.99
NASDAQ Composite down 153.39 pts to 11066.80
Dow Jones down 107.10 pts to 30076.68
FTSE100 down 78.12 pts to 7159.52
DAX30 down 235.52 pts to 12531.63
GOLD (Spot) down $2.51 to $1671.33 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0040 to $3.4630 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Nov) up $0.55 to $83.49
CRB Index down 0.38 pts to 277.85
AUDUSD trading at 0.6644
EURUSD trading at 0.9837
GBPUSD trading at 1.1256
USDJPY trading at 142.3700
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.729 to 111.075
The SPI200/ASX200 opened for overnight trade and faired well considering the SPI was closed for the day. I expect the ASX200 to play catchup with the US and keep the pressure on the SPI into the weekend. Watching for a flush of the lows and for price to potentially hold above 6618. If not, then expect to see a lower high see sellers pressure price lower into the close. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW had another choppy session but held above 29980. The price action remains weak and holding lower highs with the anchor to the move down at 30342. With the underlying Index pushing down into support, we may see some bargain hunting provide support but ultimately I feel a break of 29980 is on the cards. The US Tech 100 was also choppy and held up off 11475 as bears are wary of support on the underlying index bringing in stock market bulls. Key level I am watching is at 11475 to either hold or fail. I expect that level to break but will look for an early flush higher prior to the US open and then a move down. Hang Seng opened weak yesterday and held a push down into 18046 which was tested and held during overnight trade also. I expect that the bias down will remain but will be looking for an early flush higher to clear out some sellers and trap some buyers before a leg lower. Will be careful with shorts though as the underlying index is into daily lows and extended. The Nikkei Index is closed today so will sit aside on intraday trades.
Cryptos managed to find some buyers willing to jump in for a push higher with both Ethereum and Bitcoin moving up into resistance. BTC held a double bottom at 18330 but is being held down at 19610 so watching for a short off 19610 today. Ethereum moved up into 1324 which I will be watching to see if sellers hold for a move lower. Expecting that any further bullish action will be capped by the bearishness into the share market indexes.
Spot Gold continues to hold in a range between 1683 and 1656 with rallies being sold into by bears. I expect that this theme will continue as the USD moves into new highs. Any break higher will depend on a move down into the USD but could be a good trade with the amount of sellers stacked up and price holding a daily support zone…need to keep an eye on the Dollar. Crude Oil is choppy but being held up with equal opposing forces at play. The Ukraine/Russia concern is helping provide support (through supply concerns) while a global slowdown and expectations for weaker demand are weighing on price. Watching 82.60 to see if it can hold or fail for a push into 81.20. USD Index is holding above 110.698 and setting for a flush into new highs. I expect price action to be choppy the more extended it becomes but remain longer term bias up.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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