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Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are SPI/N225 at 10am, HSI at 11:15/30am, DAX and UK100 at 4/5pm and DOW and USTech100 at 10:30/11:30pm .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 26/09/22
US Indexes ended the week with another negative session and I feel that bulls have now all but disappeared. The technical price action is weighty across the board with risk assets taking a back seat and traders set to punish the market…and if the number of global Central Bankers speaking this week looking to ‘restore some confidence’, is anything to go by, I feel that investors are getting very fearful. The focus with be on what Central bankers have to say about inflation, but of course we can expect they will be buoyant…but I think they can only hope to try to support the market not start a new move higher as the tone is negative. This is shown from the moves in the USD hitting new highs…Gold taking a beating…Oil getting hit hard…and short term yields continuing to press higher. As mentioned previously, I do not feel that this is a time to ‘Add Risk’ but a time to be patient. JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks Tentative, EUR German Buba President Nagel Speaks at 5pm AEST, EUR German ifo Business Climate at 6pm AEST, EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 11pm and GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks at 2am AEST.
CLICK HERE FOR ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST) 26/09/22
Asian Indexes will all open weaker and could easily add to the move down. Prices are generally holding lower highs so any longs will need to be patient with prime setups off key levels.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 95 Points as it was all one way action lower for the SPI200 in Fridays overnight session.
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 82 pts to 6478
SP500 down 64.76 pts to 3693.23
NASDAQ Composite down 198.87 pts to 10867.93
Dow Jones down 486.27 pts to 29590.41
FTSE100 down 140.92 pts to 7018.60
DAX30 down 247.44 pts to 12284.19
GOLD (Spot) down $27.67 to $1643.66 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.1225 to $3.3485 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Nov) down $4.75 to $78.74
CRB Index down 9.37 pts to 268.47
AUDUSD trading at 0.6528
EURUSD trading at 0.9687
GBPUSD trading at 1.0859
USDJPY trading at 143.3100
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 1.710 to 112.815
The SPI200/ASX200 moved straight down from the start of the European session and held the lows into the US close. Price held a minor support area at 6449 but this was shorts closing into the weekend not yet a change of direction to a move up. Watching to see if shorts come back into the action from the open or whether we can expect a short squeeze and move up. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW had a good flush lower through 29725 before finding some buyers into the close to squeeze out some shorts. Price retested 29725 from beneath so watching to see if sellers pile back in for a move down or whether pullbacks and higher lows start to hold for a move up…with the move below being a major trap…either way the key level is 29725. The US Tech 100 was much the same as price flushed 11285 before bouncing into the close. Like the DOW, watching for continuation lower or a bounce off 11285 but feel that we may still see a move down into 11087 before a bounce. Hang Seng continues to make its way lower with the underlying index extended into a daily support zone. Watching the 18046 level to day to see if price flushes the level on the open and then fades lower. Bears are in control at the moment but with the index extended lower, we could see some good rips higher. The Nikkei was closed Friday so may be choppy on the open as share traders play catchup. The CFD price has minor support at 26485 and a minor lower high at 26643 that will be the focus today. For longs, I need to see a good higher low hold above 26485 and for shorts, I would like to see a flush higher and then failure back below 26643.
Cryptos remain under pressure with no love from bulls over the weekend. Bitcoin is set to hold 18850 for a lower high and move down into 18330 and potentially lower or may squeeze higher to trap some buyers before a move down…but hold below 19610. Ethereum looks like it is trying to hold above 1273 but price remains heavy for now. It seems that buyers are anticipating a bounce tonight in the US but they could be the fuel for another move down later in European or US trade.
Spot Gold remains out of favour with safe haven traders and inflation hedgers with the main focus on the USD. Price action is extended but remains heavy if it holds below 1656. Watching the action below 1656 to see if we get a break below 1641. I feel that bulls have been hurt so many times that only a good correction lower into the USD will give them some confidence…but I do not see that happening in the near term. Crude Oil took a big hit with a break below 81.20. Price action is extended lower but we could easily see price drift sideways prior to another move down. I expect to see a grind higher today into the European session. USD Index remains firmly in an uptrend with the minor anchor at 112.632. Price action is extended but for now, bulls are in control and bears remain on the sidelines.
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SPI200 Index
ASX200 Index
DOW Index
US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
Nikkei Index
Spot Gold
Crude Oil
USD Index
Bitcoin
Ethereum
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