Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are SPI/N225 at 10am, HSI at 11:15/30am, DAX and UK100 at 4/5pm and DOW and USTech100 at 10:30/11:30pm .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR WEDNESDAY 28/09/22
US Indexes again come under pressure from the open after starting in the green but ended the session up off lows. FOMC members talked up the need for more rate rises than they originally expected and acknowledged that inflation was not transient🤔. Many analysts now expect the Fed Funds Rate target to be around 5% by the first quarter of 2023 up from previous estimates. The open was buoyed by positive Durable goods orders data showing companies were still willing to invest in machinery while Consumer Confidence came out better than expected to buoy share markets. But that was not enough to keep the sellers at bay as prices drifted lower but the data did slow the risk off sentiment a little and trigger a few bargain hunters to provide support. The USD continued to edge higher and bond yields continued to test into new highs although both may be running out of steam so any pullback may trigger some buyers into the share markets. AUD Retail Sales at 11:30am AEST, EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 5:15pm, USD Prelim Wholesales Inventories at 10:30pm, USD Pending Home Sales at 12am AEST, FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 12:10am, FED Chair Powell Speaks at 12:15am, USD Crude Oil Inventories at 12:30am and GBP MPC Member Dhingra Speaks at 4am AEST.
Asian markets will open lower although I expect they will find a bid on the open as the US selloff may be due for a bounce.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 20/25 points after the SPI200 moved lower during the US session to give back early gains from European trade.
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 35 pts to 6471
SP500 down 7.75 pts to 3647.29
NASDAQ Composite up 26.58 pts to 10829.50
Dow Jones down 125.82 pts to 29134.99
FTSE100 down 36.36 pts to 6984.59
DAX30 down 88.24 pts to 12139.68
GOLD (Spot) up $6.69 to $1629.23 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0010 to $3.2935 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Nov) up $1.79 to $78.50
CRB Index up 1.67 pts to 265.97
AUDUSD trading at 0.6432
EURUSD trading at 0.9593
GBPUSD trading at 1.0732
USDJPY trading at 144.8000
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.085 to 114.105
The SPI200/ASX200 was holding up okay during the US session before giving up the gains and selling lower into the close. Price found buyers into 6436 which may be a double bottom and may tempt bulls on the open. I expect that price will again be ramped higher on the open with the key level at 6475. If this level starts to hold, then expecting to see a test into 6436 and potentially lower. If price can clear it, then we may see the start of a bounce higher….30min ASX200 chart is clearer. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW moved lower from the open as higher interest rates continue to pressure prices. Price is at a level around 29180 that is a make or break for bulls. If it holds then expect a move down…if it breaks then to me it is a flush and then rally setup and bounce play. The US Tech 100 held a move down into 11174 with price reacting up off the level into the close. I will be watching the 11354 zone for a test to see whether it holds for another push lower or fails for a move up into 11467. Longer term price action remains biased down. The Hang Seng moved down into new lows not giving bulls any let up. Price flushed below 17710 support and the day session lows around 17651. Price is extended down so I am looking for a squeeze higher on the open prior to another move down but will be quick to turn long if the lows start to hold as the underlying index may start to find a stronger bid after the bounce and move above the EMAs yesterday on the 30min timeframe. The Nikkei smashed through the days lows around 26520 in the US session but then found a bid around 26275 to push back up into 26425 into the US close. I will be watching to see if a lower high starts to hold for another leg down but expect that the open may see a grind up initially with buyers anticipating a bounce in the US.
Cryptos took a hit with Bitcoin and Ethereum giving back earlier gains from the Asian market session. The sharp move lower highlights the bearishness of the market and skittishness of buyers and unwillingness to hold. I will be watching BTC for a move up into 19470 to see how sellers react and ETH for a move up into 1352 for a potential lower high and another flush lower.
Spot Gold dragged in buyers during the Asian session before squeezing them back out on a move down off 1641. The longer term trend remains down with buyers solely focused on the USD move up. Watching now to see if buyers can hold above 1622 or whether price continues lower. Crude Oil may be finding some support from the ‘accident’ to the Russian Gas pipeline. I feel that this will be bullish for energy prices and therefore oil so we may see a short squeeze and move higher. USD Index remains bid but may be getting heavy as buyers run out of steam. Watching 114.500 to see if if holds or not but if price does fall, I do not expect a big selloff as rate rise uncertainty will continue to provide support.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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