Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are SPI/N225 at 10am, HSI at 11:15/30am, DAX and UK100 at 4/5pm and DOW and USTech100 at 10:30/11:30pm .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR FRIDAY 30/09/22
US Indexes were heavy right from the open and gave back the previous sessions gains. Being the end of the month and the quarter, I would have expected some window dressing from funds to support the market but it seems that bearish sentiment is too strong. Traders went back into risk off mode although Oil, Gold and US Bonds were more buoyant to hold up off lows as the USD moved down. US data released showed a stronger than expected jobs market which weighed on investors inflation expectations. News out that China is going to intervene in currency markets to prop up the Yuan helped pressure the USD which in turn supported other FX majors such as the EUR, GBP and AUD. The USDJPY is looking heavy and may be building for a move lower after the Bank Of Japan recently announced that they will intervene in FX markets to support the YEN. Europe is bracing for a higher German inflation reading which adds to the Global fear for much higher interest rates and in turn should keep the pressure on share markets. AUD Private Sector Credit at 11:30am AEST, CNY Non-Manufacturing and Manufacturing PMI at 11:30am AEST, EUR CPI Flash Estimate at 7pm AEST and USD Core PCE Price Index at 10:30pm AEST.
Asian markets will come under pressure on the open but do look to have found buyers on dips in overnight trading. Watching for lower highs and shorts but end of month/quarter could mean a choppy session.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 40 points after the US gave back the previous sessions gains.
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 22 pts to 6525
SP500 down 78.57 pts to 3640.47
NASDAQ Composite down 314.13 pts to 10737.51
Dow Jones down 458.13 pts to 29225.61
FTSE100 down 123.80 pts to 6881.59
DAX30 down 207.73 pts to 11975.55
GOLD (Spot) up $0.63 to $1660.60 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.0685 to $3.4270 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Nov) down $0.92 to $81.23
CRB Index down 0.66 pts to 271.16
AUDUSD trading at 0.6499
EURUSD trading at 0.9818
GBPUSD trading at 1.1122
USDJPY trading at 144.4600
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.523 to 111.985
The SPI200/ASX200 held up well considering the selloff into European and US markets. Buyers were happy to defend the 6494 zone but sellers also held lower highs keeping the pressure on bulls. Being the end of Month/Quarter, I expect the ASX200 to be choppy and supported from some ‘window dressing’ so expecting to see another ramp on open. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW took a hit on the open but found some buyers into support around 29000. Price did react higher into the close, from intraday traders closing shorts, but remained below 29315. Expecting price to hold below 29315 and pressure lower. The US Tech 100 took a hit early but held above 11088 thanks to intraday short covering into the US close in line with the DOW. The anchor to the short term move down is at 11212 which will be my key level today. If it holds, expecting selling pressure into/through 11088…if it breaks then there is a double bottom to drag in buyers. The Hang Seng held lower highs into the overnight close but also held support around 17033. Watching for an early flush lower and potentially for the bearish pressure to continue through 17033. If we see a ramp from the open, then watching the 17245 area for a long. The Nikkei Held below 26226 but may be trying to build a higher low at 26025 for a run higher. Watching the open to see if 26226 holds or not but with the current price action, I am bias down for now pending the opening antics.
Cryptos were choppy lacking any clear direction while managing to fend off a move lower. Ethereum has resistance for now at 1345 which is keeping the pressure on while Bitcoin was capped at 19620. Any move lower in Asian Indexes could see sellers jump into BTC and ETH so watching both for a lower high.
Spot Gold is trying to push higher as the USD ran lower but sellers are still adamant on holding the precious metal down. If the USD moves down through support the expecting to see a rally in gold towards 1677 resistance. Of course I am still bias up into the USD and watching for a potential bounce so expecting to see rallies into Gold to be capped. Crude Oil was choppy with pressure coming from the expectations for a Global economic slowdown while longer term bulls see a lift in demand as supply takes a hit. For now, I see the potential for a move below 81.20 to put the squeeze on recent buyers. USD Index moved down into support around 111.768 as some buyers were happy to unwind some risk into the end of quarter. Pressure is also coming from Euro bulls as higher European inflation lifts rate rise expectations into the EURO. Watching for a flush of support around 111.768 and then a bounce back above the level.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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