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Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are SPI/N225 at 10am, HSI at 11:15/30am, DAX and UK100 at 4/5pm and DOW and USTech100 at 10:30/11:30pm .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR THURSDAY 6/10/22
US Indexes had an initial flush lower from the open and then rallied to take out the previous session highs. We are at that stage after a good rally when traders and investors are waiting to see if there will be some follow through to the upside. There remains a lot of room to move higher and squeeze out more shorts which I expect may still be on the cards. Gold gave back some gains while Oil headed higher on the back of expected OPEC production cuts. Interestingly, bond yields again moved higher along with a good rally into the USD, which suggests that traders remain concerned for faster rate rises. Economic data out showed the labour market remains strong and the services sector is still expanding so it seems that the previous two days rally may have been over cooked. The main focus for traders, and the trending word, is a Fed ‘pivot’. Stock market bulls are hoping that the Fed will take their foot off the rate rise peddle on expectations that inflation is easing….but the bond market seems to be expecting otherwise and the economic data suggests they could right. CNY Bank Holiday, AUD Trade Balance at 11:30am AEDT, JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks Tentative, EUR German Factory Orders at 5pm AEDT, EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 10:30pm AEDT and USD Unemployment Claims at 11:30pm AEDT.
CLICK HERE FOR FULL ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST) 6/10/22
Asian markets are going to open ether slightly weaker or around the days close. Most markets fended off a selloff and hovered around highs which suggests that bulls have not finished yet. Generally we are dealing with a ‘pullback’ in a overall downtrend.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 25/30 points thanks mostly to a late flush lower into the US close. Price spent most of the overnight session holding around the day sessions range.
Prices below as at 7:45am AEDT
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 27 pts to 6774
SP500 down 7.65 pts to 3783.28
NASDAQ Composite down 27.77 pts to 11148.64
Dow Jones down 42.45 pts to 30273.87
FTSE100 down 33.84 pts to 7052.62
DAX30 down 153.30 pts to 12517.18
GOLD (Spot) down $10.18 to $1716.28 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.0530 to $3.5430 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Nov) up $1.56 to $88.08
CRB Index up 1.46 pts to 281.89
AUDUSD trading at 0.6489
EURUSD trading at 0.9878
GBPUSD trading at 1.1328
USDJPY trading at 144.6300
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 1.126 to 111.107
The SPI200/ASX200 held onto the recent gains and above the 6749 level. Price did find some sellers into the close which I expect was longs closing into todays open. Watching to see if 6817 can hold and we see a squeeze lower today to clear out some buyers. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW saw an initial flush lower on the open before ramping higher. There remains the same fight between ‘economic growth’ bulls and ‘interest rate rise’ bears. With the strength into the data, an aggressive Fed and no pivot is still the focus which I expect to bring in some sellers and profit takers ahead of Fridays employment data. The US Tech 100 also saw a good v-shaped recovery after the open as traders tested the previous sessions highs into the close. The US Tech 100 looks more likely to push higher into 11710 before a potential bout of profit taking. Watching to see if a minor pullback can hold a higher low for the pump or we see a double top at 11605 hold. The Hang Seng accelerated higher from the open yesterday and bulls held the gains in overnight trade. The two levels I am watching today are 18048 and 17844. Watching to see if 17844 holds for a push to 18206 or whether 18048 holds for a flush lower. The Nikkei was also happy to hover around the highs just below resistance at 27310. I expect that traders will want to see a test into 27310 before some profit takers dive into the action for a squeeze lower. The DAX saw an early move lower before bulls stepped in at the start of US trade to press higher. Resistance is at 12673 which may bring in some sellers but watching for 12437 to potentially hold and see another ramp higher. The UK100 ended the US session trading around resistance at 7074 which again held. Much like the DAX, I expect that bulls have not finished and will want to push price into 7153 highs.
Cryptos remain relatively heavy as bulls generally stay on the sidelines. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum look heavy and struggle around resistance levels. BTC reacted down off 20530 resistance while ETH moved lower off 1352. Watching both for a lower high to build for a push lower but expect that this will depend on the Asian share market movements.
Spot Gold moved lower on the back of the USD bounce up off support. Watching to see if 1717 can hold for a move lower to put more pressure on long positions so looking for a lower high to hold. Crude Oil held 86.05 as support and pressured higher. The new anchor to the move up is now at 86.05 which I expect to see support a squeeze up into 89.50. The move up is extended and could bring in some sellers off the 89.50 level so happy to have tight risk. USD Index held the 110.198 support area before climbing higher from the start of the European session. It seems that European traders do not want a weaker USD which means stronger local currencies. Watching to see if the bullish momentum continues which may do considering the lingering US rate rise expectations.
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US Tech 100 Index
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