Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 6pm and DOW and USTech100 at 12:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR FRIDAY 7/10/22
US Indexes drifted lower from the open as recent buyers were happy to lock in some gains ahead of the coming US employment data release. The USD regained its bullish momentum to continue higher off recent lows while US bond rallied to push bond prices back into lows. US unemployment claims came in higher than expected to pressure share market bulls from the open. The numbers could set up for a weak number tonight and if so, it will be interesting to see how the market takes it. The bond market is saying that the Fed will not slow down on rate rises but the share market may take a weaker number as a positive. Still, if signs start to show that the economy is slowing while inflation remains high, then that will be the biggest fear for investors. Oil continues to march higher with the massive production cuts from OPEC+ which in turn will pressure share prices through inflation. CNY Bank Holiday, AUD RBA Financial Stability Report at 11:30am AEDT, EUR German Industrial Production and Retail Sales at 5pm AEDT, Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate at 10:30pm AEDT and USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 1am AEDT.
Asian markets will open weaker and may be choppy ahead of the US number release. Prices are holding lower highs with the SPI looking weak. Bias down unless we see an early spike to confuse bears.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 45 points as the SPI200 held lower levels overnight to selloff into the US close.
Prices below as at 7:45am AEDT
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 50 pts to 6770
SP500 down 38.76 pts to 3744.52
NASDAQ Composite down 75.33 pts to 11073.31
Dow Jones down 346.93 pts to 29926.94
FTSE100 down 55.35 pts to 6997.27
DAX30 down 46.40 pts to 12470.78
GOLD (Spot) down $3.70 to $1712.74 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0625 to $3.4380 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Nov) up $1.20 to $88.96
CRB Index up 0.37 pts to 282.26
AUDUSD trading at 0.6408
EURUSD trading at 0.9792
GBPUSD trading at 1.1158
USDJPY trading at 145.1300
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 1.189 to 112.200
The SPI200/ASX200 sold off from the overnight open and held a major lower high at 6791 that I expect will hold the action down today. Watching the open to see if bulls again ramp price or whether 6775 holds for a move down below 6758 and potentially 6749. There is a chance of a good selloff and unwind of longs from the Monday and Tuesdays rally. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW pressured lower from the US open and held below 30222. I expect there was some profit taking ahead of the employment release and we may see some follow on today in the Asian session as price action looks heavy. The US Tech 100 was much the same as the DOW as price held below 11605. Price action also looks heavy and is holding minor lower highs so expecting to see a continuation of the bearish action below 11470. The Hang Seng was a grind lower in overnight trading and held above the 17844 level into the close. I expect to see at least a flush below the 17844 level and will be watching for an unwind of Wednesdays gap up and move down. The Nikkei held some good lower highs at 27190 and then down at 27135. Price did hold at the 27017 level into the close which I expect will be flushed on the open today. If price action continues to be heavy then expecting to see a push into 27050. The DAX looks heavy along with the other major indexes. Watching for lower highs to pressure price lower and flush down below 12437. The UK100 held below 7010 with sellers taking control and moving the index lower into the close. Watching to see if price is happy to hold or break 6961….but feel that the UK100 is beginning to be bias down.
Cryptos moved lower along with the major share markets but did not see very heavy selling. I expect crypto traders want to see the data release later and the stock market reaction to the numbers. In saying that, prices on both Bitcoin and Ethereum are looking rather heavy with BTC set to break below 19940 and ETH below 1352.
Spot Gold essentially went sideways and held recent gains above the 1710 area. I expect gold bulls are waiting to see what the USD does over the employment release. Price does look heavy after holding 1717 but does lack commitment from either side. Crude Oil continues to pus higher into resistance around 89.50 after the large production cuts from OPEC+. Price may start to settle for higher prices over the longer term which will put pressure on inflation. I expect it may be a grind up as economies start to slow and demand wanes…then we will probably see OPEC+ cut again. For now the bias is up so looking for a pullback higher low. USD Index pushing higher ahead of the key US employment data release. Expecting to see price test into 111.768 ahead of the number and then it will depend on the figure for the following move. Expect that a weak number could pressure USD down.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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