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Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 6pm and DOW and USTech100 at 12:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 10/10/22
US Indexes sank lower from the open after the employment report came in stronger than expected to quell any hopes that the FED will ‘pivot’ and ease off on the rate rises. An aggressive Fed is all but locked in now which can be seen by the nervous market on then US open. Many started to see that the Fed may follow in the footsteps of Australia’s RBA with a less aggressive stance on rate hikes which was potentially wishful thinking from bulls as the two economies have different inflation profiles…and Australia has a housing market that needs to be propped up😁. Oil rallied which is also adding fuel to the fire of higher inflation and more interest rate rises. The bond market proved to be correct and yields continued to pressure higher along with the USD making back recent losses and resuming the trend up. Trader focus this week will now be on Thursdays CPI (inflationary gauge) data release. JPY Bank Holiday, USD Bank Holiday and USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks 4:45am.
CLICK HERE FOR FULL ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST) 10/10/22
Asian markets had a big move lower in overnight markets so expect to see some negativity on the opens for the underlying indexes. Prices did see minor bounces into the close but I expect this was short covering…the opens will give us more idea.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 60/65 points after the SPI200 sank in overnight trade along with US markets.
Prices below as at 7:45am AEDT
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 61 pts to 6703
SP500 down 104.86 pts to 3639.66
NASDAQ Composite down 420.91 pts to 10652.40
Dow Jones down 630.15 pts to 29296.79
FTSE100 down 6.18 pts to 6991.09
DAX30 down 197.78 pts to 12273.00
GOLD (Spot) down $17.56 to $1694.90 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0630 to $3.3830 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Nov) up $4.19 to $92.64
CRB Index up 3.36 pts to 285.62
AUDUSD trading at 0.6375
EURUSD trading at 0.9744
GBPUSD trading at 1.1086
USDJPY trading at 145.2500
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.452 to 112.635
The SPI200/ASX200 moved lower off 6791 resistance and down into support at 6678 before bouncing. The bounce was more due to short covering into the close than price action finding support so the open will be interesting. Expect that investors will be nervous on the open and generally tired so happy to stay on the sidelines. Expecting to see a flush higher then lower highs hold. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW sold lower from the open after employment data confirmed that the Fed will stay the course on rate rises. Price ended above potential support around 29023 which I expect will be tested sometime in the Asian market session. The US Tech 100 also was hit hard from the open to move straight down below 11323 and into 11085. Watching the 11085 zone to either hold for a move up into European open or give way for an extension down into the 10897 area. The Hang Seng was a steady grind lower which I expect will continue today from the open. The underlying index has reacted down off a Daily level so expecting sellers to remain in control. Watching for an opening flush higher to clear out some sellers before a move down. The Nikkei fell over in overnight trade along with other major indexes. Price tested up into 27190 before dropping 500 pts into the US close. Watching the 26750 area to see if buyers can provide some support or whether we see continuation down into 26530. The DAX extended lower for a second leg down which may trigger some buyers into action off 12175. Want to see some failed lows and a higher low for a short squeeze up. The UK100 looks very heavy and set to break down below 6961 as long as the 7010 level holds. Price and momentum are in prime positions to see expansion lower so watching for a lower high to hold and bring in sellers.
Cryptos had a relatively tame weekend session but are under pressure following the share markets down. Bitcoin is holding below 19730 which I expect will continue to pressure price down into 18850. Ethereum is extending down into support around 1314 so watching to see if buyers provide support for a bounce or whether sellers continue the march lower.
Spot Gold is breaking down as the USD moves back up. Price action held a retest and lower high off 1710 so I expect that this will drag in more sellers today. Looking for an extension down into 1677. Crude Oil again moved higher to buck the recent trend of demand concerns when share markets selloff. The recent move to cut production and snub of the US by OPEC+ should keep the bullish pressure intact in the short term. Watching to see if 92.15 holds for an extension up into 95.28 highs. USD Index has pushed back above 111.768 and has bullish momentum which should see higher prices. The focus this week is on US CPI so expecting the USD to be bid higher until then as buyers have no reason to close longs.
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US Tech 100 Index
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