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Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 6pm and DOW and USTech100 at 12:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR TUESDAY 11/10/22
US Indexes edged lower with the Nasdaq leading the way to add to Fridays losses. Tech stocks came under pressure from the open as the White House unveiled new export restrictions on US companies selling semiconductor chips and other chip-making equipment to China. Traders remain focused on slowing growth and higher inflation making the markets choppy as they try to anticipate a top to inflation and the rate rising cycle. Investors will be awaiting the US CPI number out Thursday in the hopes that it is easing…this time around (As a side note, Analysts have been wrong many times previously on the CPI release which has continued to be strong). The USD continued to press higher while Bond prices moved lower which would be expected into the CPI release. AUD Consumer Sentiment 10:30am AEDT, JPY Current Account 10:50am AEDT, GBP Claimant Count and Unemployment Rate 5pm and USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks 3am.
CLICK HERE FOR FULL ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST) 11/10/22
Asian markets were mixed with the SPI edging higher, HSI edging lower and Nikkei largely rangebound. I expect that we will see a relatively choppy session again with a lack of direction.
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 15/20 points after the SPI200 foundered around overnight with the lack of direction in the US session.
Prices below as at 7:45am AEDT
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 12 pts to 6683
SP500 down 27.27 pts to 3612.39
NASDAQ Composite down 110.30 pts to 10542.10
Dow Jones down 93.91 pts to 29202.88
FTSE100 down 31.78 pts to 6959.31
DAX30 down 0.06 pts to 12272.94
GOLD (Spot) down $26.75 to $1668.25 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.0515 to $3.4380 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Nov) down $1.91 to $90.73
CRB Index down 2.56 pts to 283.06
AUDUSD trading at 0.6300
EURUSD trading at 0.9703
GBPUSD trading at 1.1057
USDJPY trading at 145.7400
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.452 to 112.635
The SPI200/ASX200 found some support overnight to fend off another move down. In saying that, price action looks heavy off 6705. Price was supported into 6661 and then up off 6679. If 6705 holds and price moves down through 6679, I expect a good test into the lows around 6645. The longer term charts look set to hold a lower high below 6702 on the ASX200. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW lacked any real conviction as it was a bank holiday and volumes were thin. Price action is being held down at 29480 but found support at 29023…so it is just a matter of which side, bulls or bears, cracks first. I am biased down for a move below 29023 with Momentum in a prime area to expand down. The US Tech 100 also lacked any real conviction but was weighed down for the session. With news that the White House is cracking down on chip exports to China and expectations for slowing growth and higher interest rates, I expect to see the US Tech pressured lower through 10845. Hang Seng drifted lower holding below 17168. Price remains in a clear down trend on the underlying index so expecting to see any buying support be limited. Although I expect to see 16986 tested and hold, I do not expect a big rally but more of a range day. The Nikkei held up off 26530 but also failed to get up through 26750. Expecting to see some nervousness on the Index open and price pressure lower but will also be watching for an early flush higher and then a lower high to hold. The DAX found buyers up off 12125 as expected but the trend down remains in tact. I feel that the 12305 level will be key today to either hold or fail….I am biased down for now. The UK100 did push below 6961 but did run into some willing buyers to provide support. Lower highs continue to hold and I expect more chop but a general grind lower ahead of the US inflation numbers later in the week.
Cryptos pressured lower as the USD headed higher and the share market lower. Bitcoin held lower highs but found buyers for a minor double bottom late into the US session around 19130 which could drag in some bargain hunters. Ethereum moved below 1314 support and is holding a lower high which could see more sellers edge into the action.
Spot Gold pressed lower as the USD rallied. Expecting to see a test down into 1658 as the distinct lack of buyers sees price action remain heavy although this could change quickly if the USD starts to find sellers. Crude Oil gave back some of the gains from Fridays rally but very reluctantly. It was more due to some short term profit taking than any change in direction as the supply manipulation from OPEC+ for higher prices continue. Watching to see if price tests into 89.50 and then bounces or we see a minor lower high hold for a long squeeze down. USD Index has continued to push higher ahead of the CPI release which I would expect as it is the path of least resistance. Watching for price to support pullbacks on its way higher which in turn will pressure dollar denominated assets like Gold, BTC and ETH.
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SPI200 Index
ASX200 Index
DOW Index
US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
Nikkei Index
DAX Index
UK100 Index
Spot Gold
Crude Oil
USD Index
Bitcoin
Ethereum
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