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Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 6pm and DOW and USTech100 at 12:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR WEDNESDAY 19/10/22
US Indexes again ended up but the intraday price action was very lacklustre and even sold off from the opening gap higher. The major indexes were all ramped higher in a thin market into the start of the European session and managed to hold the gains into the US open. The DAX and FTSE were also heavy during the session while Asian markets lacked the same enthusiasm and even moved lower in their respective overnight sessions. The USD was generally choppy but held support, thanks to some unwinding of GBP longs, while Bond prices were largely range bound. It seems that the major Indexes will be focused on earnings but I feel that individual shares need to clearly beat estimates to drag in buyers…anything that misses may get punished. For now, there remains concern for the Fed getting inflation under control, which begs the question…’how high do interest rates need to go?’, and we will continue to find bargain hunters provide bursts of support. (All times AEDT) CNY GDP and Retail Sales Tentative, GBP CPI Data at 5pm, EUR Final CPI at 8pm, CAD CPI Data at 11:30pm, USD Building Permits and Housing Starts at 11:30pm, USD Crude Oil Inventories at 1:30am and USD Beige Book at 5am.
CLICK HERE FOR FULL ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT) 19/10/22
Asian markets did not see the same strength as the US so may be starting to get heavy again. The Hang Seng could hold a lower high for a selloff into lows while SPI200 ended below the days close in a bullish US session.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 35 points after the SPI200 lagged US Indexes and found sellers to keep a lid on the price action.
Prices below as at 8am AEDT
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 29 pts to 6753
SP500 up 42.03 pts to 3719.98
NASDAQ Composite up 96.60 pts to 10772.40
Dow Jones up 337.98 pts to 30523.80
FTSE100 up 16.50 pts to 6936.74
DAX40 up 116.58 pts to 12765.61
GOLD (Spot) up $1.43 to $1652.12 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0525 to $3.3630 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) down $1.71 to $82.82
CRB Index down 3.78 pts to 271.55
AUDUSD trading at 0.6309
EURUSD trading at 0.9861
GBPUSD trading at 1.1322
USDJPY trading at 149.2600
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.033 to 111.875
The SPI200/ASX200 basically decoupled with the US as price found resistance at 6791 and pushed lower. A lower high held at 6754 which is a key level for me today. If buyers hold price up off 6715, then the overnight action was engineered to keep prices lower for the ramp today. If it breaks the level, then a squeeze on recent longs and move lower could be on the cards. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW did all the heavy lifting in a thinner market with two 360 point rallies ahead of the US open 🤔. The subsequent price action was heavy but held above 30493. It seems that someone wants higher prices so watching to see the price action today around 30493 to see if bulls can extend on the gains. The US Tech 100 took a 3% hit from the index open after being buoyed prior. Price found support around 11055 which I expect will hold today and see a higher low pressure prices higher. Watching buyers reaction around 11186 to see if it will hold. Hang Seng drifted higher in European trade before taking a hit on the US open. Price held the losses into the close and looks set to hold a lower high. I will watch the opening drive to see if price flushes 16730 to trap some buyers before a potential selloff. The Nikkei essentially went sideways to end flat with buyers providing support at 26945. Price really could go either way from the open so watching for a drive higher from the open into 27385 and then a lower high or for 27173 to hold a choppy open and sellers to put a squeeze on bulls for a move lower. The DAX extended into 12965 as expected so watching to see if price action starts to get heavy and whether we see some profit taking from longs. Bulls will need to hold above 12752 to fend off a selloff. The UK100 found sellers at 7015 and edged lower into the close. With the break of the trend up at 6956 on the pullback, I expect that we may see some sellers initially. Still, I will be watching for a higher low to hold as I feel that the index wants to test into highs around 7074.
Cryptos flushed lower off resistance but found some buyers into the US close. Bitcoin held a lower high below 19525 which I expect will drag in some sellers for a push down through 19110. Ethereum held a below 1318 and could see another flush into 1296. The way price reacted off 1296 could keep sellers at bay but the price action does look heavy.
Spot Gold essentially went sideways with the lack of direction from the USD. Price looks to be finding some buyers and may want to squeeze out some sellers…but this will depend on the USD moving lower through support. Crude Oil took a hit as traders are concerned with more supply coming onto the market and weakening demand. Price spiked lower into 81.38 before reacting back up into the close. I expect that we mays see some further downside which will depend largely on the US inventory release after the US open. USD Index looks set to rollover and put more pressure on late buyers for a move below 112.070. This may be accelerated by further GBP unwinding of longs.
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SPI200 Index
ASX200 Index
DOW Index
US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
Nikkei Index
DAX Index
UK100 Index
Spot Gold
Crude Oil
USD Index
Bitcoin
Ethereum
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