Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 6pm and DOW and USTech100 at 12:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR FRIDAY 21/10/22
US Indexes saw an early spike into the start of the European session as it seemed that bulls were again trying to ramp prices higher in a thin market to support indexes. US major indexes started the session with a rally but were quick to give back gains after some mixed earnings results. Focus was again locked in on interest rate rises as jobless claims data suggests that previous rate rises has had minimal affect on cooling the economy…leaving the Fed to continue its aggressive stance. Comments from Philly Fed President Harker added to the rate rise sentiment after suggesting ‘the Fed will keep raising rates for a while’. The comments sent the USD rallying off support to make back earlier losses and kept bond yields pushing higher with Bond prices extending down into new lows. European markets ended higher on news that British Prime Minister Liz Truss threw in the towel and resigned as PM. Expecting that the continued strength into the USD and US Bond Yields will keep a lid on bullish action and earnings ramps. (All times AEDT) CNY GDP and Retail Sales Tentative, GBP Retail Sales at 5pm, CAD Retail Sales Data at 11:30pm and EUR Consumer Confidence at 1am.
Asian markets were mixed and generally flat after the surge lower into the US close. Expecting a choppy and contained open and for potentially some weakness into the weekend.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 10/15 points after the SPI200 gave back earlier gains into the US close.
Prices below as at 8am AEDT
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 25 pts to 6701
SP500 down 29.38 pts to 3665.78
NASDAQ Composite down 65.67 pts to 10614.84
Dow Jones down 90.22 pts to 30333.59
FTSE100 up 18.92 pts to 6943.91
DAX40 up 26.00 pts to 12767.41
GOLD (Spot) down $0.90 to $1628.23 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.0810 to $3.3990 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) down $0.01 to $84.51
CRB Index up 0.38 pts to 271.72
AUDUSD trading at 0.6279
EURUSD trading at 0.9786
GBPUSD trading at 1.1234
USDJPY trading at 150.0800
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.129 to 112.750
The SPI200/ASX200 moved lower off 6760 resistance in the US session but was determined to hold support at 6705 into the close. The key level I would expect to hold if we are to see a move lower, is at 6719 although watching for an early flush of 6705 and then a quick rally before potentially buyers fading into the session close. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW held a double top off 30830 which I expect may bring in more sellers on any break down through 30275. Watching for an early kick higher and then a lower high to hold for a short entry setup. The US Tech 100 was much the same as the DOW as price action failed to hold above 11234 and gave back all of the earlier gains. Key level to either break for a short setup of hold for a buying opportunity is 10990. I am looking for further selling pressure to come into the action. The Hang Seng also reversed early gains with a sharp move lower from the start of the US session. Price ended down at 16300 and I feel that it is an each way bet for the opening drive…good case for both a sharp rally or selloff. I will be watching for a spike up and then for a lower high to hold and continue the longer term trend lower. The Nikkei also fell over to give back gains and ended between 27065 and 26990. I feel bears will push price down into major support at 26914 and again flush the level before grinding back up. The DAX ended the session around 12670 support after holding a lower high at 12803. I expect that buyers want to defend 12670 so watching for a flush to trap sellers before a higher low and rally. If not, then looking for shorts off a lower high below the level. The UK100 was essentially range bound between 6892 and 6956. I expect that the consolidation between the levels will give way to some further selling pressure as the government finds some political turmoil.
Cryptos moved lower along with share markets but held above support for now. Bitcoin held a retest of 19360 and failed lower into the close. Watching for a flush into 18850 before a bounce and squeeze on shorts. Price generally remains choppy. Ethereum held up off 1270 support so looking for a small rally and test into 1292 before a move lower.
Spot Gold tested into 1641 before giving back all the gains and failing into the US close along with the rally into the USD. Watching for a grind higher to build a lower high for the selloff into 1620. If the USD continues higher then Gold will move down. Crude Oil kicked up through 85.88 before failing lower as signs of tightening supply were offset by news of China easing covid restrictions. Price is holding above 84.23 but is below the EMAs which may see more selling and a lower high hold for a break below 84.23. USD Index is starting to show some more strength as price action held a higher low off 112.070. If price breaks back above 113.120, then expecting a push up above 114.000 into recent highs as bears find that they have inflation expectations wrong again.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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