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Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 6pm and DOW and USTech100 at 12:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR FRIDAY 4/11/22
US Indexes were under pressure from the open as traders prepare for key employment data tonight. The Bank Of England (BOE) raised rates by 75 basis points as expected but the FTSE100 rallied into the close as the BOE hinted at slowing the pace of rate rises….this diverges from the US Fed view so it will be interesting to see if they stick to the plan or if it is market supporting speech. The USD rallied hard on the back of the GBP selling, after the BOE statement release, which propped up the currency. The USD strength hurt gold and other commodities priced in USD while US Bond yields held recent gains ahead of the US payroll release. The market sentiment remains bearish after the Fed failed to pivot on rate hikes and I expect the bears will remain in control for some time as Powell said the “ultimate level of interest rates is likely higher than previously estimated”…he could not be a lot clearer to bulls. (All times AEDT) AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement and Retail Sales at 11:30am, EUR German Factory Orders at 6pm, EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 8:30pm, CAD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate at 11:30pm and USD Non-farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate at 11:30pm.
CLICK HERE FOR FULL ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT) 4/11/22
Asian markets will be mixed with the SPI and Hang Seng holding up well in overnight trade while the Nikkei will play catchup after being closed yesterday. Happy to give the open some room to see if we get a directional bias down.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 15 points as the SPI200 held up well through the US session.
Prices below as at 8am AEDT
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 24 pts to 6833
SP500 down 39.80 pts to 3719.89
NASDAQ Composite down 181.86 pts to 10342.94
Dow Jones down 146.51 pts to 32001.25
FTSE100 up 44.49 pts to 7188.63
DAX40 down 126.55 pts to 13130.19
GOLD (Spot) down $5.49 to $1629.71 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0443 to $3.4242 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) down $1.83 to $88.17
CRB Index down 2.34 pts to 278.32
AUDUSD trading at 0.6290
EURUSD trading at 0.9752
GBPUSD trading at 1.1160
USDJPY trading at 148.2500
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 1.619 to 112.845
The SPI200/ASX200 tested through the day sessions lows into 6790 before bouncing back up. The SPI failed to push into 6868 and have a relatively negative overnight close so watching for come continued weakness on the close. Ideally I would like to see a lower high hold for a test down into 6790. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW spiked lower into the US close and looks set to add to the losses today in the Asian session. The lower high holding the action down is at 32180 and as long as this level holds, I will be watching for lower highs to push price down into 31870 or below. The US Tech 100 remains under pressure which I see continuing after the Fed comments on rate rises. Price action has held lower highs into 10735 and looks set to break down below the level today. Price action is extended so any move down may be contained into the employment data release ahead of the US open but I am generally biased down. The Hang Seng kicked higher off support at 15298 on the US open and held on to the gains into the close. If the open pushes up above 15580 and holds the gains, we may see a move up into 15807. If not, then a flush and fail off 15580 is on the cards. The Nikkei may play catchup on the underlying index open so happy to let the dusk settle before looking for direction. Price held overnight below 27415 and flushed lower into the close. Ideally I will look for the 27376 level to hold and bears to pressure price lower. The DAX flushed and rejected the 13055 level but price action is holding lower levels on the way down. Watching for lower highs to continue and pressure price below 13115. The UK100 found some love compared to other Indexes as traders ramped price higher on the back of BOE comments that interest rates may peak at a lower level than the market expects. Price flushed above 7184 and held the gains into the close. I expect that bulls (and algos) may have gotten ahead of themselves and we see some profit taking into the US employment data release.
Cryptos did move up off support levels and recent lows but remained under pressure as shares were weak and the USD stronger. Bitcoin held a test into 20050 but could easily break below that level today with share market sentiment negative. Ethereum is holding below 1548 and I expect lower highs to pressure buyers today.
Spot Gold held a lower high above 1632 which led to sellers breaking below the level for a move down into 1620. With the USD strength expected to continue ahead of the data release, I expect that gold buyers will remain sidelined and price to move lower off 1632 today. Crude Oil came under pressure on expectations that any potential recession will lead to weaker demand. The higher USD did not help so I am watching for a lower high to trigger a move down below 87.82. USD Index was strong overnight on the back of Powell comments and GBP selling pressure. Price looks set to continue higher after the test into 112.488 held. I expect price to push up into 113.755 into the US open.
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US Tech 100 Index
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