Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 6pm and DOW and USTech100 at 12:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 7/11/22
US Indexes ramped higher into the Employment data which triggered bulls into action and followed on from an already strong lead out of Europe. The US data came out mixed with the number of jobs beating estimates although the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped hinting at some slack in the labour market. The average hourly earnings was also higher which shows that the economy continues to tick along but generally more money floating around (in the way of earnings) would mean stickier inflation as the Consumers continue to spend. The USD was the main focus for the session as price was sent sharply lower therefore triggering frantic buying into key commodities with Gold, Copper and Oil all having a big session. The US bond market did not show the same enthusiasm as the share market and did not react the same as the USD with yields on the 10-year note relatively unchanged at the close….seems like one market has it wrong!! The move up in share markets may be due to a short squeeze so the focus will now turn to US CPI numbers to see whether the Fed may now look to ‘pivot’. Interesting to see the choppy reaction and swing in price action after the data release…not very conducive of a bullish market considering there was a 500 pt rally then a 675 pt dump before the recovery into the close. (All times AEDT) AUD ANZ Job Adverts TENTATIVE, CNY Trade Balance TENTATIVE, EUR German Industrial Production at 6pm and EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 7:40pm.
Asian markets may see a difficult open as prices gap up…especially on the ASX. The HSI looks set for another push higher while Nikkei is bias up…generally watching for higher lows or flush to clear out late buyers prior to a long entry.
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 95 points after the SPI200 followed the US higher into the weekend.
Prices below as at 8am AEDT
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 91 pts to 6976
SP500 up 50.66 pts to 3770.55
NASDAQ Composite up 132.31 pts to 10475.25
Dow Jones up 401.97 pts to 32403.22
FTSE100 up 146.21 pts to 7334.84
DAX40 up 329.66 pts to 13459.85
GOLD (Spot) up $51.63 to $1681.34 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.2740 to $3.7010 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) up $4.44 to $92.61
CRB Index up 9.23 pts to 287.55
AUDUSD trading at 0.6470
EURUSD trading at 0.9957
GBPUSD trading at 1.1379
USDJPY trading at 146.6200
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 2.129 to 110.675
The SPI200/ASX200 failed off 6989 early before closing back up at the level after a late ramp into the US close. Expecting the opening drive to see a push through and up into 7018 before some potential profit taking. The ASX will be extended on the open but bullish potentially making intraday trade setups limited. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW saw a very choppy session with some major swings intraday. Price held support around 32000 which may see further bullish action today. Tentative on longs unless we see a flush lower and higher lows hold first which then gets soaked up by buyers again. The US Tech 100 held support around 10698 which may be a base for longs to work off. Expecting more chop but I am looking for some bullish action and squeeze of sellers for a move up so watching for a higher low to hold. The Hang Seng had a big run higher which was generally the basis for the positive mood in share markets Friday. Price action consolidated the gains which suggests more upside is to come. Watching for a higher low and push up into 17005 resistance. If not, then 16615 could hold for a short opportunity. The Nikkei held a higher low at 27320 but also found resistance at 27530. I expect bulls to provide a solid open so looking for a drive higher ideally off a flush into 27415 and then a higher low. The DAX ramped straight up into 13465 where buyers then ran into some selling pressure. Price action is extended making new longs difficult. I will be watching for an unwind of some buyers for a move down off a clear lower high. If 13392 holds, then we could see an extension on the gains. The UK100 also extended higher into resistance at 7358 before stalling. Price action is very extended making longs difficult like the DAX. Looking for some profit taking from bulls and a move lower so watching for a lower high.
Cryptos moved up along with the share markets and the fall in the USD. Bitcoin is holding above 20990 but could run into some profit taking from the open after a rather lacklustre weekend session. Ethereum also ran higher higher into the US close but did find some sellers over the weekend. I expect that all eyes will be on the USD to see whether is continues lower or not.
Spot Gold had a big session thanks solely to the big selloff into the USD. Price ended up at resistance around 1682 so I expect to see some profit taking to pressure price lower. For any long, I need to see some buyers squeezed out of the action as the market is very stretched and did ‘extend’ into a clear resistance area with little to no pullback. Crude Oil also had a big session into the weekend. With the drop in the USD, bulls come out to play. Price extended through highs at 92.25 so this level is key to watch to see if buyers can continue to support pullbacks or we see a long squeeze and move down. USD Index was hit hard after the employment data release which I feel is an opportunistic long squeeze to clear out some buyers. Longer term, the USD is correcting off higher and has previously found buyers on major pullbacks. Watching the key 110.680 level for a reaction from bulls. We may see more buyers squeezed out ahead of CPI…and I do have in the back of my mind a major trap could be being laid for Thursdays inflationary number….If it remains strong, expect a good bounce on the USD.
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US Tech 100 Index
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