Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 6pm and DOW and USTech100 at 12:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR TUESDAY 8/11/22
US Indexes added to Fridays gains to start the new week on the front foot. A surge in Meta led the Tech heavy Nasdaq higher after reports that they plan to cut staff in a mass layoff…making bulls happy they can get spiralling costs under control as they plough ahead into the Metaverse. The USD continued to push lower ahead of CPI numbers later this week and I expect the bearish trend lower to continue for now as more buyers unwind some longs. The weakness in the dollar could not stop the profit taking into Gold, Oil and Copper after the three spiked higher Friday. US Bond yields continue to pressure into highs which suggests that they are looking for CPI to come out in line and potentially higher. If inflation remains higher then recent bulls may need to rethink their outlook for a ‘pivot’ from the Fed as the Nasdaq remains under pressure. Also, with Congressional elections in the US, a good showing from the Republicans could be good for the market. (All times AEDT) AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment at 10:30am, AUD NAB Business Confidence at 11:30am, NZD Inflation Expectations at 1pm, EUR German Buba President Nagel Speaks at 7pm, AUD RBA Gove Lowe Speaks at 8:30pm and USD Congressional Elections ALL DAY.
Asian markets may be contained into the open after a tame session. Watching the Hang Seng to unwind some of the recent buyers for a move lower while the SPI and Nikkei may also look to squeeze out some buyers on the opens.
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 20 points after what was a relatively choppy session for the overnight SPI200.
Prices below as at 8am AEDT
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 24 pts to 6960
SP500 up 36.25 pts to 3806.80
NASDAQ Composite up 89.27 pts to 10564.52
Dow Jones up 423.78 pts to 32827.00
FTSE100 down 34.85 pts to 7299.99
DAX40 up 73.67 pts to 13533.52
GOLD (Spot) down $6.55 to $1674.79 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0855 to $3.6010 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) down $0.68 to $91.93
CRB Index down 0.64 pts to 286.92
AUDUSD trading at 0.6479
EURUSD trading at 1.0023
GBPUSD trading at 1.1515
USDJPY trading at 146.6100
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.737 to 110.037
The SPI200/ASX200 failed into the close to hold a minor double top that may bring in some sellers on the open. Watching the 6919 level to see if buyers want to again hold an opening flush lower or whether we see buyers look to lock in some gains for a bigger move down. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW extended into 32947 into the close and Bulls remain in charge at the moment. I feel that the market is taking the opportunity to squeeze out some sellers ahead of CPI so watching how buyers react around32647 today. Price is extended so I want to see a pullback to clear out some buyers prior to any long setup. Ideally I am looking for a lower high off 32947. The US Tech 100 edged its way higher although bulls are not convinced. Price action is correcting off 10698 so expecting a grind higher as recent sellers exit and re-assess. Looking for a test into 10910 to see if a higher low holds for a move up into the US open. The Hang Seng had another big move higher yesterday after the gap down open. Bulls are pushing and bargain hunters are happy to provide support for now. The underlying index is getting a little extended to the upside which will trigger some profit taking sooner or later so I am on guard for a sharp selloff. The Nikkei edged higher in overnight trade in a relative tame but bullish day session. Watching the open to see if buyers are happy to continue the pressure up towards the 27757 or 27840 resistance levels. The DAX held 13392 and kicked up into 13613 before fading back down in the US session. The momentum and EMAs remain up so watching to see if price squeezes lower and then holds a higher low for continuation up. The UK100 did not have the same enthusiasm as the other indexes and went lower in the US session giving up earlier gains. The recent rate rise and gloomy outlook is pressure the index but I expect to see some buyers on a push into 7232 so watching for a higher low to hold.
Cryptos opened the day weaker yesterday and remained under pressure all day. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum saw a spike lower into the US close so we may see more buyers squeezed out of the action today. Watching BTC for a kick up into 20765 and then a lower high to hold for a short setup. For ETH, it is much the same looking for a lower high off 1596…or lower.
Spot Gold struggled to add to Fridays gains even with the continued weakness into the USD. Price held below 1682 as recent buyers locked away some gains. Watching for a move below 1671 off a lower high. If the level holds (or even 1661 holds), we may be seeing the price action building for a move up through 1682….as long as we see more consolidation and 1671 or 1661 hold. Crude Oil was a bit of a choppy mess with bulls trying to push price up through 92.25 but failing to hold above the level. This may suggest that we could see a lower high off the level for a move into 90.90 or lower. USD Index continued to move lower as buyers locked in some gains and took some risk off the table ahead of CPI Thursday. I feel that we may test into 109.620 support before the data release and hold the level….when it will depend on what the CPI comes out at as to the next move.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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