Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 6pm and DOW and USTech100 at 12:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 14/11/22
US Indexes ended the week on a positive note with the Nasdaq again leading the charge to finish up over 9% for the week. Bulls continued on from where they left off the previous session on the hopes that inflation is easing and the Fed will take their foot of the ‘rate rise’ peddle along with China re-opening expectations as the country further relaxes its quarantine policy on travellers. It will be interesting to see if we have a line drawn in the sand for the lows and a base will build as there is a lot of cash to be put to work and Thursdays rally on the CPI release may just have been the trigger. The USD continued its slide while US Bond prices consolidated the recent gains essentially ranging sideways. On a Daily basis, the three major US Stock Indexes remain in a downtrend and are just reacting higher so bulls may still be a little pre-mature. I would like to see a failed retest of the lows which I expect will be the trigger for the patient bulls still on the sidelines to start back in the markets and building their portfolios. Still, even if inflation is easing, that may not translate to lower prices for consumers which means less cash moving around and tighter corporate margins. All times AEDT) CNY Foreign Direct Investment TENTATIVE and USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks at 3:30am.
Asian markets are generally happy to move higher although the Nikkei found some selling pressure to hold a lower high. The Hang Seng may be running out of momentum so watching for a lower high. SPI200 is still holding higher levels so bias remains up.
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 45 points as the SPI200 continued its push higher into the weekend in overnight trading.
Prices below as at 8:30am AEDT
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 42 pts to 7204
SP500 up 36.56 pts to 3992.93
NASDAQ Composite up 209.18 pts to 11323.33
Dow Jones up 32.49 pts to 33747.86
FTSE100 down 57.30 pts to 7318.04
DAX40 up 78.77 pts to 14224.86
GOLD (Spot) up $15.79 to $1771.41 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.1780 to $3.9360 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) up $2.49 to $88.96
CRB Index up 3.67 pts to 285.79
AUDUSD trading at 0.6703
EURUSD trading at 1.0347
GBPUSD trading at 1.1830
USDJPY trading at 138.8100
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 1.837 to 106.255
The SPI200/ASX200 held a nice higher low from the start of the European session Friday at 7148 and then rallied along with the US into the close. The momentum remains up until we see a lower high or break down through a key level. Expecting ASX investors to be bullish again on the open so watching for a minor flush down and then a higher low to hold. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW reacted lower from the open potentially in a move to clear out some buyers. Price tested the 33420 level which held so I am watching for an inside higher low to hold above 33420 for a move up into new highs. The US Tech 100 continues to benefit from expectations that inflation has peaked as bulls pushed higher Friday. Even though price was extended and momentum eased, buyers pressed higher which shows a strong trend. Watching for a minor pullback to clear out some buyers and a higher low to hold. The Hang Seng added to the days gains in overnight trading but buyers may be running out of steam. The underlying index is extended up in a downtrend so we could see sellers jump back into the action on the open. I expect to see a flush lower on the open but then for a higher low to hold and a press higher. The Nikkei held below the 28143 level into the US close as other markets were more bullish. Watching for either a straight move up from the open and a push up into 28325 or for the 28143 level to hold and a press lower. Happy to remain bias up for now with the Underlying index pressing higher. The DAX add to gains into the weekend and held a higher low at 14180. Until this level is broken, the trend remains up. Watching for a minor pullback to clear out some buyers before a run higher off a higher low. The UK100 moved down from the start of the European session to disappoint the bulls as other markets edged higher. Price flushed up through 7405 before failing and ended below 7358 which is the key level today. If price holds below, then I am watching for continuation lower through 7311. On the flipside, price rejected a push down into 7311 so we may see a higher low hold for a run up into highs.
Cryptos edged lower over the weekend with news of FTX exchange filing for bankruptcy and the associated concerns over Crypto regulation. I expect the pressure may continue today as the price action looks weak on both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Watching BTC into 16155 to see if price bounces or fails. I expect the weakness into the USD may see a bounce up off 16155 prior to another leg down. ETH is around 1230 which I am looking to hold a lower high and grind down.
Spot Gold was a grind up into the weekend as the USD continued to press lower through the European and US sessions. If the USD holds lows then expect to see gold hold above 1763 and grind higher. If not, then there is a chance for a good unwind of longs and squeeze down. Crude Oil spiked up into 90.02 resistance at the start of the US session before failing lower into the close. Interesting to see the move down considering sentiment for easing inflation and dollar weakness. Seems that Oil traders may expect higher inflation for longer so pressure on demand. Watching for lower highs and a push down/below into 87.82. USD Index was under pressure from the start of Asian trade and sellers did not let up. Price ended into 106.368 which may provide some support. If it does, then we will see a reversal in dollar denominated assets like Gold, Copper and FX. If it does not hold, then a push down into 104.968 is on the cards longer term.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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