Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 6pm and DOW and USTech100 at 12:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR TUESDAY 15/11/22
US Indexes were up from the open before turning lower late in the session for a sharp selloff. Intraday traders decided to take some risk off the table which triggered the sell side aglos into action. Traders are still trying to decipher Fed comments and what that means to the direction of interest rates. After the recent rally, it is fair to say there remains concern for inflation and investors are still nervously holding and/or quick to get out. US bond yields remain range bound after the recent fall. After the CPI induced rally, we have to remember that inflation ‘coming down’ and ‘slowing’ are two very different things and they may not mean a less aggressive Fed Reserve. Comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller over the weekend, highlight theses concerns as he said that ‘though the central bank may consider slowing the pace of rate increases at its next meeting, that should not be taken as a “softening” in the fight to bring down inflation’. Traders will now be focused on PPI data ahead of the coming US open for a further gauge on inflation. For now the USD is holding at support. (All times AEDT) JPY Prelim GDP at 10:50am, AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 11:30am, CNY Industrial Production and Retails Sales at 1pm, GBP Claimant Count and Unemployment Rate at 6pm, EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment at 9pm, USD Empire State Manufacturing Index and PPI Data at 12:30am and Day 1 G20 Meetings.
Asian markets will find some selling pressure on the open after the late selloff in the US. There are a lot of longs built up that could be the target for an intraday squeeze lower.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 30 points after a late selloff in the US sent the overnight SPI200 spiking lower into the close.
Prices below as at 8:30am AEDT
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 37 pts to 7111
SP500 down 35.68 pts to 3957.25
NASDAQ Composite down 127.11 pts to 11196.22
Dow Jones down 211.16 pts to 33536.70
FTSE100 up 67.13 pts to 7385.17
DAX40 up 88.44 pts to 14313.30
GOLD (Spot) up $0.56 to $1771.97 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0758 to $3.8377 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) down $3.76 to $85.20
CRB Index down 3.63 pts to 282.16
AUDUSD trading at 0.6701
EURUSD trading at 1.0330
GBPUSD trading at 1.1759
USDJPY trading at 139.8600
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.556 to 106.720
The SPI200/ASX200 saw a late spike lower into the close as buyers were all squeezed out of the action. Price action is holding lower highs so I expect to see some pressure to day as bulls re-assess their longs. Price may kick higher on the open and then I will be looking for lower highs to hold. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW reacted lower from the 33960 level as sellers pressured price down into the close. Once again traders are trying to digest Fed comments and what it means to rate rises so investors remain cautious. Watching for a lower high below 33960 to pressure longs further and a potential move down below 33420. The US Tech 100 was much the same as the DOW as price action rejected a move up through 11842 and failed into the close. Watching for a lower high to hold and pressure price lower…but expect that this will depend on the PPI release prior to market open. The Hang Seng saw some big swings in the day session as price spiked into and rejected 18200 major resistance on the open. The overnight session held up above 17610 which may be the target for todays opening flush if increasing covid cases spook bulls. If price action initially flushes up through 17805 and then again fails, I am looking for a good selloff and short setups. The Nikkei held the 28143 level which it held during the day and also saw a sharp selloff into the close. Watching for an early squeeze higher to trap some buyers before a move down off a lower high. The DAX was well contained after a spike higher on the US open. Price could not hold above 14302 resistance so I am watching for weakness on the European open and a lower high to hold. The UK100 spiked up into 7405 before failing lower again into the US close. Bulls tried to pressure price higher but failed so I expect that we may see a further upwind of longs today on the European open so watching for a lower high.
Cryptos had a kick higher on the European open but the bargain hunters failed to push price higher and sellers flowed back into Bitcoin and Ethereum during the US session. For now, there is a lot of unknown and I expect that buyers will be very few and far in between and unable to support price. The concerns are now contagion from the FTX blow-up so I am watching BTC for a lower high below 16155 and Ethereum for the same below 1230.
Spot Gold saw a choppy session as price edged down through 1763 before moving back up above the level in the US session. Unless we see a rally into the USD, I feel that Gold will either chop around 1763 or grind higher as recent buyers will be reluctant to lock in gains yet. Crude Oil dropped like a stone to thwart OPEC’s efforts to pump price higher. Traders were again concerned over Chinas increasing Covid cases being the worlds largest Oil importer. Price has extended down into support so watching for a flush lower and then run higher to squeeze out some buyers. USD Index managed to edge up off support around 106.850 during Asian and European trade before moving back down to test the level into the US close. Sellers have eased off and buyers may be stepping back into the action to provide support ahead of the PPI data release.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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