Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 6pm and DOW and USTech100 at 12:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR THURSDAY 17/11/22
US Indexes were largely range bound from the open as traders took a breather from recent news induced volatility. Technically price action on the DOW, Nasdaq and broader market SP500 are correcting the recent uptrend so I expect to see a grind lower. Buyers still look happy to support price into lows so could be setting for another push higher. The USD was relatively tame and well contained making for little excitement into commodities. Oil is moving back lower as supply concerns are back in focus. Consumers were the focus for retailers into the Xmas spending period after Target forecast a surprise drop in holiday-quarter sales….and the negativity flowed over with selling into other retailers. I feel that many will be tightening their belts with the recent rate rises eating into household spending capability and also higher prices thanks to inflation. Fed Governor Waller said that he is more comfortable with smaller rate rises which gave some support to the market. The market is trying to digest recent data and what that means to companies, which are are clearly concerned with spending and their bottom lines, and the Consumer although US retails sales data was stronger than expected showing resilience for now. (All times AEDT) AUD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate at 11:30am, EUR Final CPI Data at 9pm, GBP Autumn Forecast Statement TENTATIVE, USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 12am, USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims at 12:30am and USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 1:40am.
Asian markets may see a tame open as most indexes look to be getting supported on the overnight pullback. All three key Asian market Indexes are in correction mode lower so expecting a choppy open.
The ASX200 is expected to open FLAT as the SPI200 gave up earlier gains with a grind lower into the US close.
Prices below as at 8:30am AEDT
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 14 pts to 7116
SP500 down 32.94 pts to 3958.79
NASDAQ Composite down 174.75 pts to 11183.66
Dow Jones down 39.09 pts to 33553.83
FTSE100 down 18.25 pts to 7351.19
DAX40 down 144.48 pts to 14234.03
GOLD (Spot) down $4.87 to $1773.90 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0625 to $3.7575 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) down $1.53 to $84.72
CRB Index down 1.58 pts to 282.78
AUDUSD trading at 0.6740
EURUSD trading at 1.0394
GBPUSD trading at 1.1915
USDJPY trading at 139.4500
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.155 to 106.140
The SPI200/ASX200 initially ran higher into the European open before fading lower into the US close. Price ended the overnight session where it started around 7116. I expect that longs will be squeezed out of the action on the open with a flush into 7108. From there, it is whether we get a higher low and bounce or a lower high and selloff…the selling pressure is building but being soaked up at the moment. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW was well contained from the start of the Asian market session into the US close. Price held between 33425 and 33678 in a relatively narrow range. If 33678 continues to hold, then I am looking for a move down through 33425. The US Tech 100 continued to press lower into support around 11700. The move down has been well contained so I expect that buyers will look to press price higher for a retest into 11910 or higher so watching for a higher low. The Hang Seng had a choppy day session and then edged lower in overnight trading holding below the 18296 level. Price pushed below 18105 into the close so watching this level to see if buyers step back into push price back up or whether we get a deeper selloff and unwind of recent buyers towards 17805. The Nikkei gave back a lot of the days gains in overnight trading. Price action held a minor support level at 27892 which may be the base for another push up although I feel that the 27977 level will hold. Watching to see the opening drive flush up through 27977 and then will look for a lower high. The DAX initially pushed higher before fading lower back into support around 14181. Buyers seem happy to continue to provide support around 14181 so watching to see if price holds a higher low and squeezes up into 14430 in the European session. The UK100 opened strong at the start of the European session but then moved lower not long after the open. Price looks set to test into 7311 so I expect buyers to again provide support at this level ahead of the US open.
Cryptos came under some pressure from the start of Asian trade with both Bitcoin and Ethereum moving lower through support levels. Bitcoin looks set to test into 16155 while Ethereum broke below 1230 and is pushing lower into 1174. Both BTC and ETH are lacking buyers which is not surprising after the FTX issues and concerns many still have for the crypto space and exchanges in general.
Spot Gold remains locked between 1784 and 1763 as price continues to consolidate the recent gains and hold the highs. The questions is whether we test into 1805 or fail lower and squeeze out buyers….to me it still depends on what the USD does from here. Crude Oil took a hit off 86.80 minor resistance and pushed down into 83.95 before buyers provided some support. Watching to see if price moves down and takes the out the stops below 83.38 or whether price continues to edge higher…price has been defended into 83.95 three times now but pressure remains down. USD Index remained choppy and swung above and below the 106.263 level. I expect more of the same into the weekend as traders continue to digest recent inflationary data.
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US Tech 100 Index
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