Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 6pm and DOW and USTech100 at 12:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR FRIDAY 18/11/22
US Indexes opened weaker but then found some buyers to limit the losses into the close. It seems that Indexes are finding some buying support intraday off lows so watching for signs of another run higher. The late buying was in the face of comments from FOMC member Bullard who said that more rate rises are required to sufficiently cool inflation potentially looking to rise to a 5-7% range for the Fed Funds Rate…currently sitting at 3.75-4%. The market may have already factored in the coming rises although the short term US bond suggested ‘maybe not’ as the yields rallied overnight. For me, it is more about a general slowdown that is coming with company layoffs in the pipeline and higher costs of debt and goods that will eventually pressure the Consumers and in turn corporate earnings….but for now, people are spending and inflation is easing which is enough for a short term bullish market. (All times AEDT) JPY National Core CPI at 10:30am, GBP Retail Sales at 6pm, EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 7:30pm, EUR German Buba President Nagel Speaks at 12am and USD Existing Home Sales at 2am.
Asian markets I expect to have a mixed open as HSI moved higher into the close and SPI and Nikkei held support levels. Prices are being supported which suggests another run highs so on watch for higher lows.
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 10/15 points thanks to a last minute rally into the SPI200 after a relatively mixed session.
Prices below as at 8:30am AEDT
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 6 pts to 7162
SP500 down 12.23 pts to 3946.56
NASDAQ Composite down 38.70 pts to 11144.96
Dow Jones down 7.51 pts to 33546.32
FTSE100 down 4.65 pts to 7346.54
DAX40 up 32.35 pts to 14266.38
GOLD (Spot) down $13.14 to $1760.57 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0935 to $3.6800 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) down $3.15 to $81.85
CRB Index down 5.18 pts to 277.60
AUDUSD trading at 0.6686
EURUSD trading at 1.0362
GBPUSD trading at 1.1860
USDJPY trading at 140.2100
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.403 to 106.555
The SPI200/ASX200 moved lower though the European session only to bounce back up into the US close. Buyers are still defending lows and after yesterdays very bullish SPI open, I expect to see bulls control the open again today. Watching for SPI to hold a higher low potentially after an initial flush lower to trap some sellers. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW is contracting off recent highs so is on a liquidity hunt as we can see by the flush below 33425 and then bounce back above. Price managed to retest and hold the same level into the close which may be enough to convince more buyers for support today. Watching for 33425 to hold today. The US Tech 100 also flushed a low in search of liquidity before bouncing back into the close. Price pushed up into 11700 off 11586 so watching for some continuation today as recent buyers after the CPI release stand firm. The Hang Seng ramped higher off a retest of the day sessions lows around 11740 and closed on session highs. Watching for a flush higher on the open to trap some buyers before a potential move lower as the underlying index remains extended into resistance. If price consolidates any gains on the open around 18505, then watching for continuation up towards 18850. The Nikkei found support into the US open at 27760 and then higher at 27892 into the US close. Price action is holding lower high but also support so expecting a potentially choppy session. Expecting to see 27892 hold so watching for a higher low. The DAX saw an opening selloff into 14148 before bouncing into the close. I expect bulls to continue with the momentum up and push into 14380 potentially 14430. The UK100 made new lows by a few points before bouncing straight back up. The underlying index is looking heavy and may be setting for a selloff although other markets remain buoyant. Watching to see if a lower high holds for a push down. I expect 7405 to hold today but if not, I will then look for a higher low and short squeeze higher.
Cryptos may have lost a bit of mojo as the usual volatility seeps out of the market. Bitcoin and Ethereum had a narrow range session as both bulls and bears try to work out what is happening next. For BTC, I am looking for 16440 to hold and a push higher and for ETH I am looking for a potential retest into 1174 before buyers edge price back up. IF ETH moves up into 1230 and then consolidates, then continuation higher is on the cards.
Spot Gold edged lower as the USD moved up off support. Remembering that there is a lot of buyers stacked up as fuel for a potential move down, I am watching for any further rally into the Dollar to trigger a run below 1754. Crude Oil broke down again in US trade as demand is expected to increase with China easing covid lockdowns. Price is extended into lows on a daily basis around 81.36, so I am expecting to see a reaction from bulls and some short covering for a move up. USD Index moved up off support around 106.263 and into resistance at 107.270 before fading lower into the close. Watching to see if buyers pressure higher again today and into the weekend which will in turn pressure dollar denominated assets.
Join Our TRADERS HUB DISCORD CHANNEL for updates and trade ideas (email email@example.com for the link)
US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
Disclaimer: the contents of this post are presented for informational purposes only. They should not be viewed as investment advice, nor a solicitation to buy or sell any financial securities. Investments in financial products are subject to market risk. Some financial products, such as currency exchange, futures, contracts for difference, options and warrants are highly speculative and any investment should only be done with risk capital. Prices rise and fall and past performance is no assurance of future performance. Trading currency exchange, futures, contracts for difference, stocks, shares, options and warrants on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in currency exchange, futures, contracts for difference, options, stocks, shares and warrants you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with currency exchange, futures, contracts for difference, options, stocks, shares and warrants trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.