Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 6pm and DOW and USTech100 at 12:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR WEDNESDAY 23/11/22
US Indexes extended higher along with other key Indexes in Europe and Asia. Share markets are on a charger higher as previously sidelined cash is put to work in a ‘risk on move’. US indexes were all one way action up from the open in a thin market as retail and energy stocks supported the action. OPEC said that they would persist in production cuts which helped to provide support oil although concern remains that China demand is less than expected as Covid restrictions bite. Short term 2-year bond yields continued to pressure higher while 10-years edged lower ahead of FOMC Minutes which traders will be scrutinizing for hints to the end of the rate rising cycle and an approximate peak in interest rates. All in all, share markets are positive and being supported by stronger consumers in the face of high inflation and quarterly reports have been generally resilient. (All times AEDT) JPY Bank Holiday, NZD Official Cash Rate and Rate Statement at 12pm, EUR French Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI at 7:15pm, EUR German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI at 7:30pm, GBP Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI at 8:30pm, USD Durable Goods Orders Data at 12:30am, USD Unemployment Claims at 12:30am, USD Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI at 1:45am, USD Consumer Sentiment at 2am.
Asian markets may again be mixed with SPI and Nikkei set to open stronger while the Hang Seng remains under pressure. Looking for a flush and drop on the HSI open while I expect I will have to be patient on the others for an entry.
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 60 points as SPI200 extended up through resistance in the overnight session.
Prices below as at 8:30am AEDT
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 62 pts to 7255
SP500 up 53.64 pts to 4003.58
NASDAQ Composite up 149.90 pts to 11174.41
Dow Jones up 397.82 pts to 34098.10
FTSE100 up 75.99 pts to 7452.84
DAX40 up 42.42 pts to 14422.35
GOLD (Spot) up $2.09 to $1740.04 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.0495 to $3.6210 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) up $1.03 to $81.07
CRB Index up 2.72 pts to 279.24
AUDUSD trading at 0.6647
EURUSD trading at 1.0303
GBPUSD trading at 1.1886
USDJPY trading at 141.2500
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.667 to 107.065
The SPI200/ASX200 moved higher from the open of the overnight session as the SPI200 was pushed up through resistance holding higher lows into the close. Bulls are in charge and I expect are targeting the 7287 zone on the ASX200. I will not be looking for a buy today without seeing a pullback to clear out some sellers. On the flip side, with the bullish sentiment, any short will need to be off a clear lower high…which I expect will take some patience. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW moved up through 33820 in European trade and then opened for the US session and added to the gains after breaking above 33960. Expecting to se a push into 34180 ahead of FOMC minutes which could trigger some profit taking. I expect that the Fed will not be as accommodating to rate rise expectations as the market has already factored into price. The US Tech 100 found some bargain hunters to push price high in a general risk on mode. I would like to see price hold a higher low after a minor pullback for long entries but suspect that we may see a straight run up into 11790. The Hang Seng is still not showing the same enthusiasm as other indexes as sellers weighed on the index. Price action was pushed lower during the day session and held below 17610 overnight. Key levels today are 17408 and 17610. Expecting another flush of stops above 17610 and then drop but will be on guard for the reverse below 17408 and then bounce. The Nikkei was positive in overnight trade as price ended at resistance around 28325. Watching for either a flush higher to trap buyers and then a lower high sell setup or a push above and minor consolidation above for a trend move higher. Expect that share traders will have to play catchup with the overnight action. The DAX saw a relatively choppy session but was generally bullish into the close. I expect to see higher prices into and from the European open so watching for a test into 14435 to hold a higher low and then a rally. The UK100 finally cleared the 7416 resistance level and held a retest before ending in session highs. Expecting to see buyers add to the gains and extend up into 7487 before potentially some short term profit taking and a move lower.
Cryptos fought back off key lows for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The trend remains down but buyers found some positive sentiment after reports cryptocurrency entrepreneur Justin Sun could potentially purchase assets from FTX. I feel that the rally is some bargain hunters providing short term support in an otherwise down trending market. Watching BTC and ETH around resistance levels to see if buyers can continue the push higher or whether we see a resumption of the move lower.
Spot Gold moved up off 1730 to break the short term anchor down at 1746. Price did later move lower into the close but the question is whether Gold can stay above 1730 or not which will depend of USD…but I do expect that the USD may be choppy until FOMC minutes and Gold hold above 1730. Crude Oil edged higher up through 80.36 after OPEC production comments. Price did fail off 82.35 as China demand concerns will continue to weigh on the action. Watching for a squeeze lower off 81.36 to clear out some recent buyers. USD Index edged lower below 107.270 and is at an area where I expect a reaction up. The grind down was generally due to some recent buyers closing dollar longs. If price does flush lower, I would expect a bounce back up ahead of FOMC minutes late in the US session.
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US Tech 100 Index
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