Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 6pm and DOW and USTech100 at 12:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR FRIDAY 25/11/22
US Indexes were closed for the session leaving the other major Indexes to fend for themselves. Europe was stronger from the open to add to the recent gains. Both the DAX and FTSE have had a good run up and are now in over extended territory so may find increasing selling pressure. With the US closed the USD essentially was range bound below 106.263. Price looks ready to test down into 105.035 which will be good for dollar denominated commodities and other assets. The US bond market closed early but did take the opportunity to move up (yields down) in a thin market. Bitcoin and Ethereum have both moved up off major lows to give bulls some breathing room and comfort for now. I still feel that the negative news around the crypto space will weigh on BTC and ETH in the near term or at least keep buyers sidelined as many have been hurt or are still hurting. (All times AEDT) JPY Tokyo Core CPI at 10:30am, EUR German Final GDP at 6pm and EUR Consumer Climate at 6pm.
Asian markets may be muted on the open after he US was closed for the session. Expecting to see the SPI and Nikkei add to recent gains while watching the HSI for another flush up and then selloff.
The ASX200 is expected to open FLAT after the SPI200 floundered in overnight trade with no direction from the US.
Prices below as at 8:30am AEDT
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 12 pts to 7265
SP500 Closed at 4027.26
NASDAQ Composite Closed at 11285.32
Dow Jones Closed at 34194.06
FTSE100 up 1.36 pts to 7466.60
DAX40 up 111.97 pts to 14539.56
GOLD (Spot) up $6.19 to $1755.79 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.0120 to $3.6300 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) up $0.02 to $77.96
CRB Index Closed at 276.87
AUDUSD trading at 0.6765
EURUSD trading at 1.0412
GBPUSD trading at 1.2113
USDJPY trading at 138.6400
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.202 to 105.765
The SPI200/ASX200 initially moved up into resistance around 7276 during European trade before moving lower off the level into the close. Expecting to see another push higher from the open as ASX investors remain in a bullish mood. From there, looking for a short off 7276 or an extension into new short term highs. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW flatlined as the US was closed. Price remains trading around resistance at 34180 which is a big daily level. To clear 34180 and move up, I expect to see a clear higher low otherwise we may see some profit taking and move down off the level tonight…be careful of a flush higher to trap buyers prior to any selloff. The US Tech 100 also flatlined due to the holiday. Price is also at a resistance level around 11912. Momentum is easing but we want to see a lower high for any short setup otherwise price action may just look to consolidate further sideways prior to a new leg higher. The Hang Seng edged higher in overnight trade to again close around 17756. Yesterday price opened up into the level and then was sold lower so I will expect much the same today. If bulls want to ramp price higher, the looking for a higher low off 17756 to squeeze out shorts. The Nikkei trade in a narrow rang in the overnight session after generally moving lower in the day. Price is back down into 28325 where I would expect to see some buyers again on the underlying Index open. Looking for a higher low and test into yesterdays highs or even a move up and through 28502. If price pushes lower, then looking for a lower high off 28325 for a squeeze on recent longs. The DAX rallied from the European session open and managed to hold a retest of 14487 to then end near session highs. Price looks ready to add to the gains and push up into 14620 although I would expect to see some short term profit taking there as the action is extended and will run out of buyers sooner or later. The UK100 also ramped up from the open into 7487 resistance where price then failed lower. We are back around the same levels as the previous close so I am looking for a move down into 7453 and then a bounce. If price holds around the lows, then watching for a lower high and a selloff into the weekend.
Cryptos were supported yesterday through the Asian and European session with Bitcoin testing up into 16740 resistance as expected and Ethereum moving up off 1174. We may see more bargain hunters today to edge price higher although I expect price to be tentative to the upside with the lingering negative sentiment in the crypto space. Watching both BTC and ETH to flush lower and then hold a higher low off support levels.
Spot Gold edged its way up into 1754 before running into some sellers to cap the move up. Price was generally choppy on the rally so we may see a good squeeze lower to clear out some buyers before resetting for another push higher. I expect that the USD will find some volatility later in the European session or into the US open which will dictate Golds next move. Crude Oil went sideways in a range bound market with the US closed for the session. Price is holding below 78.13 so one of two things will happen…a squeeze on sellers or a continuation move down once the US re-opens…I feel that a squeeze higher is on the cards. USD Index moved down below the 106.263 level from the start of the Asian session and held below into the close. If price remains below the level today, we may see and extension lower into 105.035 support.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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