Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 6pm and DOW and USTech100 at 12:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 28/11/22
US Indexes were mixed in a shortened low volume trading session with the DOW higher while Tech was lower and weighed on the broader market SP500. China covid cases continued to weigh on Oil which was lower ahead of OPEC meeting where they may look to cut production again as the cartel tries to buoy prices. Traders watched retail stocks, which were mixed, to assess the strength of the Consumer and hence the US economy. The USD weakened into the US close to give back some of the gains from the European session. The pressure is on USD bulls to try and rally prices again and any move back above 106.263 today could be the start of a bigger bounce. US Bond yields rallied in European trade before a minor selloff into the US close to give back some of the gains. If bond yields press higher again today, expect to see the USD rally and USD denominated assets pressure lower…Gold, Oil Copper, BTC and ETH. (All times AEDT) AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks at 10am, AUD Retail Sales at 11:30am, EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 1am, USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 4am and EUR German Buba President Nagel Speaks at 4:10am.
Asian markets will again be mixed with the Hang Seng remaining under pressure and the Nikkei and SPI set to open stronger. China covid cases may weigh on the Asian market session as momentum slows and resistance levels hold.
The ASX200 is expected to open FLAT after the SPI200 could not break up into new highs in overnight trade and struggled around 7276 resistance.
Prices below as at 8:30am AEDT
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 9 pts to 7263
SP500 down 1.14 pts to 4026.12
NASDAQ Composite down 58.96 pts to 11226.36
Dow Jones up 152.97 pts to 34347.03
FTSE100 up 20.07 pts to 7486.67
DAX40 up 1.82 pts to 14541.38
GOLD (Spot) down $0.40 to $1754.87 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0005 to $3.6175 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) down $1.66 to $76.28
CRB Index down 3.62 pts to 273.25
AUDUSD trading at 0.6751
EURUSD trading at 1.0395
GBPUSD trading at 1.2092
USDJPY trading at 139.1900
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.027 to 105.940
The SPI200/ASX200 found resistance in the European session around 7276 and faded during the shortened US session. Price held a lower high around 7271 which may pressure the open for a flush below 7256 support. With the recent momentum up on the ASX200 weakening, we may see some profit taking today. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW moved up off 34180 from the start of the US session. I am not putting too much emphasis on the rally, with such a thin market prices can easily be bullied up/down. Watching to see if buyers continue to press higher today or if we see a selling back below 34180. The US Tech 100 moved lower through European trade and then was range bound into the US close. Will be watching to see if buyers can hold up off 11713 and push higher off a higher low. Technically price action looks heavy but I do not feel that bulls have given up as yet. The Hang Seng moved lower from the start of the overnight session back into the day sessions lows. Price remains under pressure so expecting a flush lower into 17393 on the open and then potentially a higher low and squeeze on recent sellers. If support at 17393 is cleared convincingly, then we may see a good selloff. The Nikkei edged higher in European and US markets but held a resistance level and minor double top at 28385 that may bring in sellers on the open today. Ideally, I am watching for a minor flush up on open to trap buyers before a lower high holds. The DAX saw a generally contained and uncertain session with both higher lows and lower highs hold intraday. Price is on a good position to expand higher and trade up into 14620 so watching for a lower timeframe higher low to hold for the long. The UK100 was also choppy with buyers again capped into 7487. Price action previously held 7453 after a flush of the level and has now held a higher low at 7460 so watching for a move up through 7487 and into 7525.
Cryptos were generally flat over the weekend and are expected to open around Fridays close. Bitcoin held 16440 and may look to push up to test into 16740 but will need to hold above the EMAs. Ethereum price action is looking more bullish after holding 1174 so watching for an extension up into 1230. Any pressure up into the USD may see selling pressure into both BTC and ETH.
Spot Gold could not hold above 1754 and failed back below the level to clear out some buyers. Price also held a retest of 1746 so watching to see if a higher low can hold after the open for another push above 1754 and into 1763 which will of course depend on the USD moves today. Crude Oil nose dived late in the European session to push straight back below 78.13 and is set to test into recent lows around 75.72 as China demand concerns continue to weigh on price. Bulls have a good case too for a rally although will will need to see signs of a higher low first. If OPEC cut production further, then buyers may step in to provide support although, price action is heavy and I expect a least a test below 75.72 today. USD Index moved up above 106.263 before falling back below the level in a muted US session. Watching to see if a higher low holds around 105.930 and sees a move back above 106.263 and higher.
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US Tech 100 Index
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