Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 6pm and DOW and USTech100 at 12:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR TUESDAY 29/11/22
US Indexes were hit from the open as China concerns weighed on the action and comments from Fed officials that stopped bulls in their tracks. The concern with the increase in Covid cases has investors questioning whether the Chinese government will be more aggressive with lockdowns and, coupled with social unrest, what that will mean to the economy both local and global. Fed officials said that the FOMC may need to be ‘more aggressive rather than less aggressive’ with interest rate rises as inflation is ‘far too high’. The comments come on the heals of the market expecting the Fed to ease off on interest rates but it seems that investors expectations may be wrong again. Tech led the market lower with Apple down over 2% on concerns over production shortfalls thanks to China unrest. Oil also took a hit early but regained lost ground on an about face as traders expect OPEC to step up production cuts to provide price support. Bond yields were higher along with the USD which will potentially pressure US Dollar assets lower. (All times AEDT) JPY Unemployment Rate at 10:30am, JPY Retail Sales at 10:50am, EUR German Prelim CPI ALL DAY, CAD GDP at 12:30am, GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 2am and USD Consumer Confidence at 2am.
Asian markets are expected to have a tentative open after the US selloff from open until close. The HSI was happy to rally while markets were heading lower but watching for weakness in the underlying Index.
The ASX200 is expected to open FLAT after the SPI200 gained during European trade but then gave back all the gains into the US close.
Prices below as at 8:30am AEDT
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 2 pts to 7243
SP500 down 62.18 pts to 3963.94
NASDAQ Composite down 176.86 pts to 11049.50
Dow Jones down 497.57 pts to 33849.46
FTSE100 down 12.65 pts to 7474.02
DAX40 down 158.02 pts to 14383.36
GOLD (Spot) down $13.22 to $1741.65 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) down $0.0300 to $3.6005 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) up $0.96 to $77.24
CRB Index down 0.33 pts to 272.92
AUDUSD trading at 0.6652
EURUSD trading at 1.0342
GBPUSD trading at 1.1954
USDJPY trading at 138.8700
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.027 to 105.940
The SPI200/ASX200 was bullish through European trade even as the DAX was down. Price rallied up into the 7276 resistance level before moving straight back down again once the US session kicked off. I expect the weakness in the US session to flow over into the ASX open and see the SPI flush lower into 7230 before bulls again try to ramp price. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW fell away from the 34180 area and into 33820 potential support. Watching to see if the level can provide some support to squeeze out some sellers ahead of the US open. The US Tech 100 was also weaker after flushing above 11710 to trap some buyers before a selloff into the close. Price ended near the 11560 support zone so watching to see if price rallies to build another lower high and see another leg down tonight. The Hang Seng added to the day sessions strength with a rally while other markets were generally weak. Price pushed up into 17640 before edging lower into the close. Watching for an opening flush up to trap some buyers before a lower high and move down. The underlying index looks ready for another move down after I expect it to close the gap from yesterdays negative open. The Nikkei moved lower with the US to give back earlier gains and close down into a support zone around 28086. I want to see an opening flush higher and then a lower high hold for a selloff but feel the index will see an early drive down into 28020 before a bounce up. The DAX was weak in European trade and added to the losses in the US session. Price extended down into support around 14340 which so may see some bargain hunting off the level into the European open. The UK100 was unusually strong after the open and pushed up into resistance at 7496 before edging lower in the US session. If share markets remain weak and take another hit tonight, then I expect the UK100 to play catchup and move below 7460.
Cryptos took a hit from the start of the Asian session but managed to fend off another selloff during the US session. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are consolidating sideways but I expect to see further weakness if they fail to push above resistance. BTC is holding below 16155 so watching for a lower high to build. ETH is trading around 1174 and also looks ready for another lower high and move down into/through 1139.
Spot Gold found some love early to clear out sellers and trap some buyers on a move up through 1754 into 1763. Once the USD started to rally, then sellers dived back into gold and sent price lower. Looking for a extended move into 1730 before a minor bounce or a retest and fail of 1746….will depend on USD. Crude Oil flushed below 75.72 in Asian trade and then found some support to stop the rot and rally price back up again on hopes for further OPEC production cuts. Watching to see how buyers react on a retest down into 75.72 but expecting to see a bounce at the level considering the way the selloff was halted around 74.00. USD Index spiked down into the 105.035 zone before spiking straight back up on Fed Officials comments. I am watching for further strength as sellers realize they are on the wrong side of the market and interest rates are not coming down anytime soon.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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