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Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 6pm and DOW and USTech100 at 12:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR WEDNESDAY 30/11/22
US Indexes had a relatively contained session ahead of Powells speech late in the coming US session. Focus for traders will be on what Powell has to say about interest rates and the potential timing for an easing on rate raises. Selling into Apples shares weighed on Tech stocks which then weighed on the broader market. Bond yields in the US generally edged higher as traders position for Powells speech while the USD also made its way higher. Data showed that Consumer Spending remained strong with Consumer Confidence coming out inline with expectations. This will only support the Feds view that any rate cut, which many in the market are anticipating or hoping for, is off the table for a while and the Fed will stick to its hawkish stance. Meanwhile, Oil rallied to add to previous sessions gains as expectations remain of further OPEC production cuts. I feel that many recent bulls may look to unwind some longs if Powell comments do not support their expectations…which I think that they will not. (All times AEDT) AUD Building Approvals and Private Sector Credit at 11:30am, CNY Manufacturing PMI at 12:30pm, EUR German Unemployment Change at 7:55pm, EUR CPI Flash Estimate at 9m, USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 12:15am, USD Prelim GDP at 12:30am, USD Jolts Job Openings and Pending Home Sales at 2am, USD Crude Oil Inventories at 2:30am and USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 5:30am.
CLICK HERE FOR FULL ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT) 30/11/22
Asian markets were well contained in overnight trade with the Hang Seng holding onto the days gains while the SPI and Nikkei edged lower. Watching to see if buyers unwind some longs today ahead of Powell speech.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 10 points after a choppy overnight session for the SPI200.
Prices below as at 8:30am AEDT
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 1 pts to 7259
SP500 down 6.31 pts to 3957.63
NASDAQ Composite down 65.72 pts to 10983.78
Dow Jones up 3.07 pts to 33852.53
FTSE100 up 37.98 pts to 7512.00
DAX40 down 27.91 pts to 14355.45
GOLD (Spot) up $7.79 to $1749.57 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) up $0.0310 to $3.6465 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) up $0.96 to $78.20
CRB Index up 2.60 pts to 275.52
AUDUSD trading at 0.6686
EURUSD trading at 1.0329
GBPUSD trading at 1.1956
USDJPY trading at 138.6800
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.098 to 106.730
The SPI200/ASX200 was relatively contained with neither the bulls or bears willing to commit to a move. Price was contained between both the day sessions highs and lows. I expect buyers may try to ramp on the open but I do not expect a big bullish day ahead of Powells speech. Price action really could go either way…hold a lower high or a higher low. Key levels are 7270 and 7236. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW held a lower high at 33960 but fended off a selloff below 33820. I expect that price will want to stay above 33820 today and into the European open so watching for a flush and higher low for a move up. The US Tech 100 moved lower after breaking below 11623. Traders remained concerned about the rising costs of debt and external factors which are pressuring shares lower. Price has extended into 11500 so I expect we may see a grind higher although I do not see a big move up unless Powell does a backflip on interest rates and becomes happy with higher inflation. The Hang Seng moved sideways in overnight trade so there is a chance of a big unwind of buyers from the previous two sessions. On the flip side, the bullish tone could easily continue and press price up into 18450 and potentially above. I am watching for a minor flush lower on open to trap sellers and then an extension up into 18450. The Nikkei edged its way lower after holding a minor test up into 28086. Price action looks ready to push into lows around 27870 and potentially lower, as long as we do not see a gap down on the index open which could entice bulls. The DAX had a very choppy session between 14445 resistance and 14335 support. Traders may see more of the same on the European open before Powell releases the volatility. If sellers can break below 14335 off a lower high, then a good selloff could be on the card. If the level holds, we may see a move up through 14445. The UK100 was happy to move up and consolidate new highs around 7525. Key levels are 7543 and 7511. I am watching for a minor pullback above 7511 and price to extend up into 7573 during European trade as the Index remains more bullish than others. From there, price will be extended and could see some profit taking from recent buyers.
Cryptos edged higher after holding minor support levels. Bitcoin held 16055 and then a minor higher low that I expect will drag in some buyers today for a potential kick up into 16740. If price holds around 16440 today, then we may see a move down as the bigger downtrend weighs on bulls. Ethereum I expect to push up into 1230 before finding some profit taking and a move down.
Spot Gold was pressured lower from a rising USD. Price held the 1754 level and looks ready to move lower today through 1746 so watching for a lower high to hold. If the USD starts to chop around through Asian and European sessions then I expect gold will hold above 1746 and below 1754 until JPowell comes online. Crude Oil flushed below 78.13 and then bounced back above the level into the US close. I feel that the move below 78.13 was to trap some sellers so I am watching for a further move up potentially above 79.40 as there will be some good liquidity above the level. USD Index edged higher as Oil rallied and US bond yields moved up. There may have been some short covering as traders position for the speech. Expecting any selling to be contained during Asian and European trade….but do not expect any big move higher either.
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SPI200 Index
ASX200 Index
DOW Index
US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
Nikkei Index
DAX Index
UK100 Index
Spot Gold
Crude Oil
USD Index
Bitcoin
Ethereum
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