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Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 6pm and DOW and USTech100 at 12:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR TUESDAY 6/12/22
US Indexes played catchup with the realities of Fridays employment data and went south from the open. It was all one way traffic lower as investors digest the potential for a higher interest rate environment. Markets across the board reversed course from Fridays close. US Bond yields were back on the march higher along with the USD which moved up off support. Oil also took a hit on the expectations for lessening demand while gold took a hit on the Dollar rally. Manufacturing data out in the US pointed to higher inflation for longer so traders will be eagerly awaiting the Fed Reserve meeting next week. The recent economic data suggests that the Fed will have to be more restrictive for longer than many had hoped/expected which is a negative for share markets so I expect that there may be further unwinding of longs this week ahead of the Fed meeting so watching for a decent swing lower. (All times AEDT) AUD Current Account at 11:30am, AUD Cash Rate and RBA Rate Statement at 2:30pm, EUR German Factory Orders at 6pm and USD Trade Balance at 12:30am.
CLICK HERE FOR FULL ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT) 6/12/22
Asian markets will come under pressure on the open and HSI may see some good unwinding of yesterdays buyers. Want to see clear lower highs for short setups.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 40/45 points after the SPI200 moved lower in overnight trade.
Prices below as at 9am AEDT
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 47 pts to 7296
SP500 down 72.86 pts to 3998.84
NASDAQ Composite down 221.56 pts to 11239.94
Dow Jones down 482.78 pts to 33947.10
FTSE100 up 11.31 pts to 7567.54
DAX40 down 81.78 pts to 14447.61
GOLD (Spot) down $29.20 to $1768.70 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) down $0.0620 to $3.7885 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) down $3.05 to $76.93
CRB Index down 6.33 pts to 270.35
AUDUSD trading at 0.6700
EURUSD trading at 1.0492
GBPUSD trading at 1.2188
USDJPY trading at 136.7200
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.718 to 105.218
The SPI200/ASX200 was lower from the open of the overnight session with price pushing down into 7277 support before some shorts covered into the close. I expect that many bulls will be a bit nervous into RBA today so we may see more pressure on the open after a minor squeeze higher to clear out some sellers. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW fell over from the open and moved down off 34385 into 33925. Price action is extended so I expect to see a reaction up off 33925 to clear out some shorts before a lower high holds and we see another squeeze lower. The US Tech 100 was much the same as the DOW with a move lower from the open. Price held a lower high at 11983 and reacted up off 11740 into the close. Like the DOW, I expect to see some further short covering for a move up before a lower high holds as investors digest the potential for higher interest rates. The Hang Seng had a big session yesterday as the underlying index extended up into resistance. Price action gave back all the days gains in overnight trading so we may see a further unwind of longs today to test the bulls resolve. Expecting an opening drive down into 18927 and bounce before sellers then step in to hold a lower level. The Nikkei held below resistance at 27856 before selling off into the US close. Price did react up off 27633 but I expect to see a push below this level on the open and test down into 27536. Price action looks weak and with the underlying index under pressure, I expect bears to be in control today. The DAX saw a choppy session and a lot less weakness than would have been expected with the selloff in the US. Price found buyers to provide support off 14427 so we could see a squeeze higher into the US open. The UK100 was also relatively buoyant considering the US move down. Buyers supported 7542 into the US close so I am watching for a flush up into 7570 to trap some buyers before a lower high holds and price falls.
Cryptos moved lower into the US close after an earlier rally through the Asian and European sessions. Bitcoin failed down off 17400 to take out the days lows through 17100 while Ethereum failed off 1289 and through 1258. I expect that recent buyers will be nervous which could trigger another selloff if the USD continues to edge higher. Watching BTC and ETH to move lower once the Asian session kicks off.
Spot Gold initially moved up into 1807 to trap some buyers before taking a hit and moving down through 1787 and towards 1762 potential support. Watching for an extension into 1762 before some potential short covering and a rally up off the level. Crude Oil played out to expectations, maybe a little too well, with a pop into 82.20 resistance and then a selloff into 77.00. I want to see buyers put up a fight for a squeeze higher up off a higher low. If we see a sharp spike up with no higher low, then I feel that another leg lower is on the cards. USD Index rallied back up into 105.035 and could expect on the move up today if price continues to hold higher lows. I feel that we are due for a corrective move up which may mean more selling into share markets is to come.
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SPI200 Index
ASX200 Index
DOW Index
US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
Nikkei Index
DAX Index
UK100 Index
Spot Gold
Crude Oil
USD Index
Bitcoin
Ethereum
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