Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 6pm and DOW and USTech100 at 12:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR THURSDAY 8/12/22
US Indexes were slightly weaker as sellers capped the action higher and pressured prices into the close. Good sign for bulls is that price may have found a short term base and support although we could just be seeing a minor pause in the short term trend down before a lower high holds….meaning the coming US session will be telling. The USD moved lower again while Bond yields eased which may give stock indexes a reason to go risk on again. On the flip side, the rally into Bonds and USD could be some safe haven buying as talk of a recession continues….the USDJPY moved lower during US trade but more due to the weakness into USD than a safe haven YEN bid. Tech again weighed on the broader market with Google and Apple doing the most damage to the Nasdaq. On a daily basis, I feel that there is more downside to come as the three major US indexes look like tops have been put in place. (All times AEDT) JPY GDP Data and Current Account at 10:50am, AUD RBA Bulletin and Trade Balance at 11:30am, EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 11pm and USD Unemployment Claims at 12:30am.
Asian markets are set to open weaker with the SPI200 and Nikkei holding support. The Hang Seng moved 1000 pts down in one move so I expect recent buyers to be a little concerned…could see another unwind lower.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 25 points after the SPI200 saw a relatively choppy overnight session.
Prices below as at 9am AEDT
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 16 pts to 7230
SP500 down 7.34 pts to 3933.92
NASDAQ Composite down 56.34 pts to 10958.55
Dow Jones up 1.58 pts to 33597.92
FTSE100 down 32.20 pts to 7489.19
DAX40 down 82.00 pts to 14261.19
GOLD (Spot) up $15.14 to $1786.14 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) up $0.0265 to $3.8445 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) down $2.24 to $72.01
CRB Index down 1.57 pts to 265.89
AUDUSD trading at 0.6726
EURUSD trading at 1.0510
GBPUSD trading at 1.2208
USDJPY trading at 136.5700
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.392 to 105.150
The SPI200/ASX200 saw a relatively choppy overnight session as price edged lower into 7210 before finding some buyers. The price action still looks heavy but is into a good support zone where I expect to see a reaction from buyers. Watching for a flush lower on the open and then a higher low. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW also had a very choppy session as it seems that buyers were defending the 33500 area. I am biased up off a higher low for a short term squeeze on sellers. Longer term, I still feel that there is more downside to come. The US Tech 100 is much the same as the DOW with price having extended down into a bid zone around 11492. Price action still looks like it is holding below the EMAs so could easily head lower. Still, I an watching for a short term squeeze higher to clear out some sellers. The Hang Seng took a massive hit prior to the European open and into the Underlying index close. Price was sold down over 1000pts which will not give recent buyers any confidence on the open. I expect to see 19085 hold and a second leg down so watching for lower highs. The Nikkei was also choppy and generally pressured lower into support around 27560. Ideally, watching for another lower high and a move down through 27560 but if we see an opening flush of support and then it holds, watching for a squeeze higher. The DAX moved below support but bears could not get price action to move much further. If price continues to hold below the level today, then I am looking for continuation down into 14150 to squeeze out more buyers. The UK100 moved down into support around 7495 where it closed. Price is extended although does look heavy. Any break below and the sellers hold a retest of 7495, then I expect to see a move into 7420.
Cryptos moved down to squeeze out recent buyers. Bitcoin broke down below 16874 and is currently consolidating below the level which points to another flush lower through 16750. Ethereum broke down below 1258 from the start of the European session and is holding below the EMAs which points to selling pressure and a move lower. Looking for further weakness into both BTC and ETH.
Spot Gold rallied up into 1787 and held a minor higher low at 1777 which is the anchor to the move up. If the USD continues lower, then watching for gold to hold another higher low. If USD bounces, then a selloff into gold off a lower high will be the play. Crude Oil initially trapped some buyers with a move up into 75.45 before heading lower again to take out 73.84. There is the potential that price could head lower to the mid $60s so watching to see if bears hold another lower high below 73.84. USD Index moved lower but found support into 104.898 as buyers reacted and price kicked higher into the US close. I expect that we could still see more upside so expect to see 104.898 hold. If not, then there may be a move into new lows on the cards that would benefit commodities.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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