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Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 6pm and DOW and USTech100 at 12:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR FRIDAY 9/12/22
US Indexes found support on the open as bargain hunters stepped back into the action after two days of selling. Traders were supported by a fall in the USD although Bond yields did edge higher potentially as traders were rebalancing some positions prior to the inflationary PPI data out tonight ahead of the US open. Traders will be expecting/hoping that the data release points to easing in inflation which I expect to be bullish for shares in the short term. If the PPI shows weakening then we may see another leg into highs across major Indexes….if it comes out stronger than expected, then a selloff is on the cards. Markets were led higher by a rally into tech stocks namely Amazon, Apple and Microsoft…I expect that many were getting in ahead of the data release. Oil continues to pressure lower as traders expect a longer term global economic slowdown even as China comes back online. (All times AEDT) CNY CPI and PPI at 12:30pm, USD PPI Data at 12:30am and USD Consumer Sentiment at 2am.
CLICK HERE FOR FULL ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT) 9/12/22
Asian markets found support and buyers in the after hours session so I expect to see bullish action on the open. The Nikkei and SPI have some room to squeeze out sellers while Hang Seng is into resistance again.
The ASX200 is expected to open 20/25 points after the SPI200 worked up off support in the overnight session.
Prices below as at 9am AEDT
SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 33 pts to 7214
SP500 up 29.59 pts to 3963.51
NASDAQ Composite up 123.45 pts to 11082.00
Dow Jones up 183.56 pts to 33781.48
FTSE100 down 17.02 pts to 7472.17
DAX40 up 3.37 pts to 14264.56
GOLD (Spot) up $2.95 to $1789.09 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) up $0.0200 to $3.8805 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) down $0.55 to $71.46
CRB Index up 0.51 pts to 266.40
AUDUSD trading at 0.6769
EURUSD trading at 1.0555
GBPUSD trading at 1.2234
USDJPY trading at 136.6700
USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.266 to 104.790
The SPI200/ASX200 found buyers in overnight trade to hold support at 7178 and then a higher low at 7198. Price is into a broad resistance zone but I do expect that bulls will try to ramp prices higher on the open. Looking for a higher low to hold for a move up into 7230. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW held above 33660 and also held a retest into the level. I expect that a squeeze higher is on the cards to clear out some sellers so watching for a higher low above 33660 for a push up into 33925. The US Tech 100 also found some buyers in the US session with a move up out of the 11492 bid zone. Sellers capped price at 11657 and we have minor support at 11576. I expect that price will look to target stops above 11657 for a flush up into 11740 ahead of the PPI release. The Hang Seng continued on with the days bullishness for a squeeze up into 19625 resistance. Price held a higher low at 19383 so the opening drive will be interesting. The re-opening of China has buyers excited but the underlying economy is not so good so there is a good case for both the bulls and bears. Watching for a flush higher to trap some buyers before another move down. If price consolidates early around 19625, then a break higher may be the play. The Nikkei moved up in overnight trade after a weak day session. Price action tested back up into 27775 before easing lower into the close. Price is extended and the major trend remains lower so watching for a flush higher on the open and then a move down off 27800. The DAX had a choppy session as price action held below 14339 and remains in a short term downtrend. Price also held a minor higher low at 14255 that could be setting for a squeeze higher so watching for a move up to clear out some sellers. The UK100 was also very choppy and held multiply tests of 7465 support. The price action looks heavy and could easily break down below 7465 to test down towards 7420. In saying that, I am looking for a squeeze up off a higher low.
Cryptos had a good session with a spike higher late in the US session. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum flushed up through resistance getting crypto bulls excited for another leg up. The move up was supported by a fall in the USD and bulls targeting stop losses above 17100 on BTC and 1274 on ETH. With both running into resistance, I expect that we may see some chop and grind lower today.
Spot Gold edged its way higher supported by the USD selloff. Price action held a higher low at 1782 which will need to hold to see higher prices and a potential test up into 1807. Any bounce back into the USD and I expect to see a break down below 1782 to squeeze out recent buyers. Crude Oil initially spiked and trapped some buyers again into 75.45 before moving down into new short term lows below 72.86. If price tests and holds below 72.86 then I expect to see another move down. USD Index held a lower high below 105.642 and moved down into 104.873. Price action could easily extend lower but I feel that traders will be waiting for the PPI release prior to any new directional move so expecting more of a chop/range market today.
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SPI200 Index
ASX200 Index
DOW Index
US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
Nikkei Index
DAX Index
UK100 Index
Spot Gold
Crude Oil
USD Index
Bitcoin
Ethereum
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