Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 6pm and DOW and USTech100 at 12:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 19/12/22
US Indexes was basically a mirror image of the previous session intraday action as price moved down from the open and then found buyers into the close. It was a follow on from the previous weakness as the Daily price action weighs on the bulls and sees traders lock in some gains with a risk off mood. Recession talk continues to be the main news headlines and investor focus. Gold and the USD both moved up from the start of the European session which is a change from usual correlation which points to safe haven buying into both. To me, this change in tone is something to watch as it may be pointing to expected weakness into the share market indexes. US Bond Yields also went lower which may be pointing to safe haven bets as as the talk of a recession gathers steam. Generally there is a lot of room to move on major Indexes and traders may not be happy to hold any risk over the ‘thinly traded‘ Christmas period which leaves the share market vulnerable. ( Check out my daily view of key indexes here ) (All times AEDT) EUR German ifo Business Climate at 8pm and EUR German Buba Monthly Report TENTATIVE.
Asian Markets may be mixed as the SPI200 and Nikkei moved lower while the Hang Seng held up in US trade. Looking for further weakness on the Hang Seng and the usual bounce on the SPI while the Nikkei could go either way. Other major Indexes are extended lower but potentially in the early stages of a daily selloff.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 35 points as the SPI200 gave back the day sessions gains from Friday to move lower in overnight trade.
Prices below as at 9am AEDT
SPI200 (Mar) overnight futures down 27 pts to 7072
SP500 down 43.39 pts to 3852.36
NASDAQ Composite down 105.12 pts to 10705.41
Dow Jones down 281.76 pts to 32920.46
FTSE100 down 94.05 pts to 7332.12
DAX40 down 93.16 pts to 13893.07
GOLD (Spot) up $16.28 to $1793.15 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) up $0.0070 to $3.7700 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) down $1.82 to $74.29
CRB Index down 3.34 pts to 271.38
AUDUSD trading at 0.6685
EURUSD trading at 1.0586
GBPUSD trading at 1.2148
USDJPY trading at 136.6000
USD Index US Session (ICE Mar) up 0.247 to 104.450
The SPI200/ASX200 moved lower from the overnight session open after rallying during the day. Buyers did support price up off 7037 into the close while the anchor to the move down is holding at 7083. Watching for an opening flush lower and then potentially buying support intraday again to hold above 7037. Seems that the selling is done in the overnight session but we have seen the longer term ASX200 pushed into major support at 7105 which I expect will see a decent reaction from bulls. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW moved down holding lower highs along the way. Price is being anchored down at 33034 which may hold to see an extension of the move down into 32560. I expect that many are now seeing that ‘bad news means bad news’ so bulls may come under more long term pressure. The US Tech 100 also moved down into support at 11180 which held into the close but the trend down also remains intact. Watching for one of two scenarios…a higher low up off 11180 or consolidation around the level for a lower high and a break below in the US session. The Hang Seng held a lower high at 19448 after the day sessions sharp spike up off 19230. I feel that buyers off 19230 will be feeling nervous after price held lower levels so I am watching for a selloff below 19230 today. The Nikkei moved down below support at 27400 and held below the level. Price did consolidate below the level so we may see some bargain hunters (after the 1.8% drop on the underlying index Friday) to push price back above 27400 early. If price action can not get back above the level, then watching for a lower high and move down. The DAX broke below support at 13972 on the European open and price held below the level into the US close. I am looking for a retest back up into 13972 and then for the level to hold and a selloff into 13768 and potentially lower. The UK100 took a hit on the European open to play catch up with other major indexes. Price held support at 7315 but also minor resistance at 7346. I expect to see some buyers squeeze out sellers early so watching for a higher low off 7315.
Key Cryptos took a hit lower from the European open as both Bitcoin and Ethereum moved down off key minor levels. I expect that they will open weaker after a negative weekend of trading. ETH could easily extend lower and drag BTC with it but prices are extended so watching for a higher low and squeeze on sellers prior to the US session.
Spot Gold initially chopped around 1780 before moving up off the level holding minor higher lows and retracing some of the recent move down. Watching to see if 1795 holds and we see a move down or whether there will be further safe haven buying…which I expect will depend on how the US trades later. Crude Oil pushed below 75.45 where it seems that buyers are now trying to provide some support. Watching to see if price pushes back up into 75.45 and then expect to see a lower high off the level as longer term demand expectations take a hit on recession talk. USD Index moved up after holding a higher low above 104.150. Watching to see if sellers step in to hold price below 104.912/105.215 for another leg down or whether a safe haven bid gathers steam and pressures price higher.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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