Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 7pm and DOW and USTech100 at 1:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR TUESDAY 20/12/22
US Indexes had another negative session to thwart a Christmas rally many may have been expecting. Sellers pushed prices lower from the open as recession talk continues to spook investors. Selling into tech shares weighed most on the market as many are coming to terms with the ‘higher for longer’ interest rate narrative from the Fed. The USD was buoyant for the session hovering around resistance levels that are capping bulls for now. US Bonds nosedived as yields rallied potentially on further safe haven bets which in turn spooked the stock market. There is not much in the way of fundamental or economic data support for Indexes and halt the ‘risk off’ move as we head into a traditionally low volume period. ( Check out my daily view of key indexes here ) (All times AEDT) AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 11:30am, JPY Monetary Policy Statement and BOJ Press Conference TENTATIVE, EUR German PPI at 6pm and USD Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30am.
Asian Markets will again open weak as Indexes grind lower. The Hang Seng has the potential for a decent selloff after yesterdays rejection of highs while the SPI200 may again see bulls ramp the open.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 20 points after the SPI200 followed the US lower in another weak overnight session.
Prices below as at 9am AEDT
SPI200 (Mar) overnight futures down 27 pts to 7057
SP500 down 34.70 pts to 3817.66
NASDAQ Composite down 159.38 pts to 10546.03
Dow Jones down 162.92 pts to 32757.54
FTSE100 up 29.19 pts to 7361.31
DAX40 up 49.80 pts to 13942.87
GOLD (Spot) down $5.44 to $1787.71 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) up $0.0005 to $3.7620 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) up $0.90 to $75.19
CRB Index down 0.82 pts to 270.56
AUDUSD trading at 0.6700
EURUSD trading at 1.0607
GBPUSD trading at 1.2151
USDJPY trading at 136.7900
USD Index US Session (ICE Mar) down 0.036 to 104.297
The SPI200/ASX200 came under pressure from the start of the overnight session after testing and failing off 7107. Price did squeeze out some shorts up off 7039 so it will be interesting to see if we get an opening ramp again as with previous sessions. Looking for a move up into 7074 and then for a lower high and move down as negative sentiment weighs on bulls. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW held below 33047 for a lower high which suggests more selling to come as the short term trend down remains intact. Watching for a grind up to hold a minor lower high and then for a push down below 32622. If bulls can defend 32622 then we may see a short squeeze higher. The US Tech 100 remains under pressure as price held a lower high at 11292. I expect that the downtrend will continue with bears potentially targeting 10640 in coming sessions. Watching for a minor grind higher and then for another lower high to build for another move down. The Hang Seng held a lower high at 19448 in overnight trading. Price again found support into 19230 but it seems that the pressure is down after yesterdays savage rejection down off 19760. The index could be in for a decent selloff today if 19230 can not hold so watching for a lower high after potentially an opening flush higher to trap some buyers. The Nikkei was also in negative mood in overnight trading but held a push into 27158 and bounced up off the level into the close. I ideally would like to see a lower high hold for a move below support but would not be surprised to see a choppy session. The DAX held below 13972 as sellers seemed to control the session. Price is in a prime position to extend lower again and push into or below 13768. Watching for a lower high below 13972 or potentially for a test and failure off 13972. The UK100 was bullied up off 7315 in a relatively choppy session. Price tested into 7385 and held below the level so I expect to see more downside but will need to see a lower high hold for any short setup.
Key Cryptos edged lower as share markets continued down. The failure of recent support at 17470 for Bitcoin and 1274 for Ethereum may have broken the backs of bulls who were expecting a long term rally and another bull market. Both BTC and ETH look very heavy and set to hold another lower high which could easily trigger another big selloff. Any longs would need to be agile and have tight risk…I am biased short for now.
Spot Gold moved down off 1795 holding lower highs and looks set to continue lower today. If price holds below the recent lower high around 1790, then I expect to see a move down into 1780 especially if the USD moves up above resistance. Crude Oil is edging higher in a channel but I expect that buyers will run out of steam soon and ideally we will see a push back down into 73.55 or below. Index initially flushed lower before finding a bid to push back up into resistance around 104.738. Price is hovering above the EMAs for now but holding resistance. I expect that the bulls may have another push higher after the 104.140 level held.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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