What is in store for 2023?
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A New Year means it is time to reset and review the Key Markets!!
So it is the start of a new year but can we expect more of the same as 2022? Last year was full of ‘swings are roundabouts’ and I expect that the start of 2023 to be much the same…but are the charts saying something different?…time to take a look!!
USD Index
The USD has continued to test into and hold above daily support over the Xmas period sending Spot Gold higher (Previous Gold Trading View Post Here) while key Indexes have come under pressure.
Spot Gold
The US employment situation remains strong which is a concern for the US Fed Reserve and should keep them focused on a more aggressive tone towards interest rates…much to the disappointment of stock market bulls. I expect that there could be a shock to the upside in the USD on upcoming FOMC statements and CPI releases prior to any further downside.
DOW Jones Index
The DOW is looking relatively resilient which shows a move away from high flying tech and into the most stable blue chip shares as investors could be looking to batten down the hatches in anticipation of a much talked about recession. I feel that the DOW could start to hold a wide range and fend off a move down into new lows while the Nasdaq could easily continue lower as the trend down remains in tact.
Nasdaq Index
The below ASX200 is also looking rather rosy as it has reacted up off 6400 and is showing signs of a push into all time highs…which seems hard to believe!! I will be watching for 6905 to hold and buyers to build a higher low above the level before looking for new shares to add to portfolios. Of course, recent price action was over a thinly traded period so could fall apart under renewed selling pressure…we can only wait and see.
ASX200 Index
So will the market lean towards higher share prices on the back of a resilient, but slowing, US economy (no more rate rises) or lower prices on the back of stubbornly high inflation and higher costs company debt??…which was the same focus for 2022.
To me the landscape has not changed too much with the global fundamental picture remaining much the same with investors tentatively into risk assets – and quick to get out. I also expect the focus for at least the start of the year, to be on the US Fed and a Fed ‘pivot’ so I expect to see more ‘false starts’ and will assess the price action as it unfolds.
Welcome to 2023 and lets make this a good year!! 😁
Happy Trading,
Braden
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