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Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 7pm and DOW and USTech100 at 1:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR WEDNESDAY 18/01/23
US Indexes ended the session with weakness as the DOW fell apart thanks to Goldman Sachs worst earnings miss in a decade. The index ended down 1.14% while the Nasdaq held up as traders await key tech earnings and guidance for the coming quarter. Data showed that Manufacturing contracted sharply as employment growth stalled showing weakness in factory activity which adds to recession fears. At the moment it is all about earnings which are expected to decline 2.4% year-on-year for the broader market SP500. The USD is started to show signs of holding a bid which could pressure commodities and major Indexes. Gold reacted to the USD support by moving lower and looks set to unwind some long positions considering that the USD looks buoyant. US Bonds were bid up as yields eased and the USD found support…could be some safe haven buying on expectations of a slowing US economy after manufacturing data come in surprisingly weak. Asian markets will have to contend with the BOJ release today so may be tentative from the open. The Nikkei ramped higher in overnight trading so may find weakness on the open ahead of the number as buyers are squeezed. (All times AEDT) JPY BOJ Outlook Report and Monetary Policy Statement TENTATIVE, JPY BOJ Press Conference TENTATIVE, ALL WEF Annual Meetings Day 3, GBP CPI Data at 6pm, EUR Final CPI Data at 9pm, USD PPI Data and Retail Sales at 12:30am and USD Beige Book at 6am.
CLICK HERE FOR FULL ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT) 18/01/23
Asian Markets may come under pressure from the open after weakness in overnight markets. The Nikkei will have the BOJ announcements to contend with so expect volatility.
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 10/15 points after the overnight SPI200 rejected highs and was heavy into the US close making for an interesting open.
Prices below as at 9am AEDT
SPI200 (Mar) overnight futures up 14 pts to 7341
SP500 down 8.12 pts to 3990.97
NASDAQ Composite up 15.95 pts to 11095.11
Dow Jones down 391.76 pts to 33910.85
FTSE100 down 9.04 pts to 7851.03
DAX40 up 53.03 pts to 15187.07
GOLD (Spot) down $7.02 to $1908.53 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) up $0.0182 to $4.2340 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Feb) up $1.10 to $80.96
CRB Index up 1.31 pts to 277.22
AUDUSD trading at 0.6990
EURUSD trading at 1.0790
GBPUSD trading at 1.2288
USDJPY trading at 128.1700
USD Index US Session (ICE Mar) up 0.186 to 102.132
The SPI200/ASX200 found weakness into the US close and looks heavy ahead of the ASX open. Watching for price action to hold a lower high after the rejection into new highs and lower high at 7355. If a lower high holds we could see an unwind of buyers and move down into 7317 or below. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW flushed lower off major resistance at 34273 and tested into 33910 which it is holding for now. Looking for a further squeeze lower to clear out more late buyers and a move into 33668. The US Tech 100 is holding a wedge pattern higher which I expect will resolve to the downside off 11555 resistance. We can see the that momentum has eased as price has moved up (MACD) so looking for a lower high for a push below 11475. The Hang Seng showed some weakness in overnight trade as price held a lower high at 21665 and then held below 21615 into the close. Expecting to see some weakness from the open ideally off a flush higher to clear out some sellers and trap some buyers. The Nikkei pumped higher into 26366 before rejected the level into the close. Price looks set to hold a lower high at 26310 and I can not see bulls willing to add new positions ahead of the BOJ release. There is potential for a good squeeze lower from the open so looking for a lower high to hold on the lower timeframes. The DAX spiked up through 15198 before failing and holding back below the level which would be considered bearish. As momentum slows, I will be looking for a lower high and squeeze down to clear out some recent buyers. The UK100 also spiked and rejected a resistance level at 7870 which brought in to the sellers to hold price down into the close. As the market has also had a strong run up testing all time highs will little pressure from sellers, I expect the time may be ripe for a selloff so watching for a lower high.
Key Cryptos held up well as Bitcoin and Ethereum both held minor higher lows into major resistance. Prices have yet to pressure recent buyers and are showing signs to me for a squeeze lower. If the USD gains some momentum higher then I expect BTC and ETH to come under pressure especially after both flushed and rejected into new highs showing lack of conviction from new buyers.
Spot Gold edged lower as price contracted off highs. Buyers managed to support 1904 into the close but the recent price action is still holding a lower high so looking for further weakness off 1909. If price does hold above 1904, then expected a short squeeze up into 1918. Crude Oil had a relatively choppy session with price kicking up, then failing before spiking into the US close. Price is holding just below 81.13 for now but I expect that a spike up into 82.55 is on the cards so looking for a minor higher low on a lower timeframe. USD Index flushed lower before bouncing back up into 102.550. The move shows some strength to me so looking for price to hold above the EMAs and push up through 102.550 ahead of the US open. If share markets are getting heavy, expecting a safe haven bid into the USD.
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SPI200 Index
ASX200 Index
DOW Index
US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
Nikkei Index
DAX Index
UK100 Index
Spot Gold
Crude Oil
USD Index
Bitcoin
Ethereum
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