Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 7pm and DOW and USTech100 at 1:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR TUESDAY 24/01/23
US Indexes as earnings season provides support to enthusiastic bulls and bargain hunters. The Nasdaq provided support for the overall market as investors look ahead to the Mega-Cap tech stocks Microsoft and Intel to kick off tech earnings. Traders are looking to pick up some bargains expecting a good start to 2023 after many tech companies have cut staff levels in an effort to cost cut on the back of expected slowing demand. Weakness into oil weighed on energy stocks while potentially buying into lows for the USD may be capping commodities in the near term. US bond markets pressured lower which is as yields rallied which may be a sign that the USD will find buyers and share markets may start to peak in the near term. In saying that, earnings remains the focus for now and buyers are in control even as key Indexes are extended. (All times AEDT) CNY Bank Holiday, AUD NAB Business Outlook at 11:30am, GBP CPI Data at 6pm, EUR German Consumer Climate at 6pm, EUR French Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI at 7:15pm, EUR German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI at 7:30pm, GBP Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI at 8:30pm, USD Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI at 1:45am and USD Richmond Manufacturing Index at 2am.
Asian Markets I expect to be bullish again as the US kicks higher. Nikkei has been charging higher although it is extended so there is room for a selloff. The SPI200 is not convincing on the buy side but the trend remains higher. Hang Seng is closed.
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 20 points after the SPI200 followed the US higher in overnight trade.
Prices below as at 9am AEDT
SPI200 (Mar) overnight futures up 25 pts to 7426
SP500 up 47.20 pts to 4019.81
NASDAQ Composite up 223.98 pts to 11364.41
Dow Jones up 254.07 pts to 33629.56
FTSE100 up 14.08 pts to 7784.67
DAX40 up 69.39 pts to 15102.95
GOLD (Spot) up $4.76 to $1930.96 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) up $0.0068 to $4.2583 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Mar) down $0.04 to $81.60
CRB Index up 1.79 pts to 280.25
AUDUSD trading at 0.7027
EURUSD trading at 1.0873
GBPUSD trading at 1.2380
USDJPY trading at 130.6500
USD Index US Session (ICE Mar) up 0.009 to 101.790
The SPI200/ASX200 initially squeezed lower into 7375 before buyers ramped higher in the US session. Price extended up into 7428 into the close so I will be watching the opening drive to see if price clears out some buyers on a flush lower prior to a rally…or stop hunts above 7428 prior to a decent pullback lower. Price action has been choppy the last few session showing some uncertainty at these high levels. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW initially flushed lower to clear out some buyers before rallying from the open into 33809. We did see some minor profit taking intraday off 33809 but the trend remains up. Watching to see if 33668 holds today and we see a squeeze lower at the start of the US session. The US Tech 100 like the DOW, ramped higher from the open. Price action is extended but remains biased up until we see a clear lower high. I expect that the target will be 12060 either during European trade or at the start of the US session so watching for a flush lower and then a higher low. The Hang Seng is closed for the LUNAR NEW YEAR. The Nikkei is powering higher and has spent some time consolidating around 27180 so I watching for an extension higher from the open as buyers remain in charge. I expect that any pullback will be met with buyers as the trend up is strong and potentially wants to target 27390. The DAX looks more conservative in the recent move up than the US which leads me to be sceptical of any strength. In saying that, price has held higher lows off 14900 and may look to grind higher today with major Indexes moving higher. The UK100 is much like the DAX as price action is grinding higher lacking the bullish momentum. Looking for a flush up into 7814 to trap some buyers before price squeezes lower. If sellers can push below 7781, then we may see a good selloff as there is a lot of fuel (with stops below) that will need to exit longs.
Key Cryptos held yesterdays gains with Bitcoin hovering around 22850 while Ethereum is into a daily level at 1630. Prices on both BTC and ETH are holding higher lows so the longer that they consolidate the recent gains, the more chance I see of higher prices. Any further weakness into the USD should provide support but I expect to see a good unwind of longs if the US share market rally finds sellers tonight.
Spot Gold had a choppy session overnight but did manage to fend off sellers on the push below 1920. Price action remains bullish but any rally back into the USD off current lows will change the bulls mood. Watching for a flush up into 1935 and then a will be watching for a lower high to hold for a squeeze on some buyers. Crude Oil found selling into highs around 82.63 so I expect to see some follow through to confirm the double top. Watching for a flush lower and then for a higher low to hold for a move back up. If price starts to build a key lower high below 82.63, then looking for a good move lower through 81.22 into 80.37. USD Index held above 101.622 in a show of strength but also held below 102.266. I expect that the pressure into the USD will continue today but I am watching for a higher low to build for a squeeze on sellers.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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