Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 7pm and DOW and USTech100 at 1:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR THURSDAY 9/02/23
US Indexes edged lower off previous sessions highs as traders were happy to lock in some gains. The USD held up well and pushed back up into highs which pressured some share traders. US bonds were largely rangebound around recent lows which added to the negative sentiment for the session. European markets opened stronger as expected but further gains were capped with the FTSE (UK100) trading into new all time highs to clear out some stops before moving lower. The US was weighed down by tech with Google (Alphabet) taking a hit after its new AI chatbot Bard delivered an incorrect answer in an online advertisement 😂. Oil continued to edge higher while Gold failed to break out early to new short term highs as the USD found support. With recent comments from Powell and overnight comments from FOMC Waller, traders are having to re-assess their outlooks for inflation. Waller mentioned overnight that the battle to get inflation down to the Feds 2% target ‘might be a long fight’ which means more pressure on companies and consumer spending. I expect that we may see a slow unwind of recent buyers over coming sessions. All in all, it remains a hard market to navigate so risk management must be a priority.
(All times AEDT) JPY M2 Money Stock at 10:50am, EUR German Prelim CPI ALL DAY, GBP Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 8:45pm, EUR EU Economic Forecasts at 9pm, USD Unemployment Claims at 12:30am and EUR German Buba President Nagel Speaks at 4am.
Asian Markets will open lower so watching to see if we again get buyers providing support or whether we see the start of a decent unwind of longs.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 30 points after the ASX200 back away from the day session highs.
Prices below as at 9am AEDT
SPI200 (Mar) overnight futures down 31 pts to 7429
SP500 down 46.14 pts to 4117.86
NASDAQ Composite down 203.27 pts to 11910.52
Dow Jones down 207.68 pts to 33949.01
FTSE100 up 20.46 pts to 7885.17
DAX40 up 91.17 pts to 15412.05
GOLD (Spot) up $1.91 to $1875.66 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) down $0.0330 to $4.0475 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Mar) up $1.33 to $78.47
CRB Index up 0.14 pts to 270.94
AUDUSD trading at 0.6923
EURUSD trading at 1.0713
GBPUSD trading at 1.2070
USDJPY trading at 131.4200
USD Index US Session (ICE Mar) up 0.037 to 103.335
The ASX200 saw a move down off the days session highs around 7353 with price pushing through support at 7507. The move late in the session was a grind lower suggesting some buyers were providing support. Whether this is to hold price up for a stronger open for later selling or whether bulls are adamant the ASX will see new all time highs soon…it is unknown. For me, if price holds below 7507 on the open then I am looking for a lower high short. If price shows strength and starts to hold above 7507, then looking for either a squeeze higher or more of the same chop as yesterday. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW edged lower off 34140 which has been tested many times and held strong. Buyers are trying to provide support at 33950 so any higher low above this level I will look for a buy setup. Any lower high and then I expect price will push back below 33950. The US Tech 100 generally dragged on the overall market as price pushed and held below 12550 into the close. We may see some after hours support in a thin market like with the DOW, but I expect to see a test lower. Looking for a spike above 12550 to trap some buyers prior to a run lower. The Hang Seng continued to pressure lower to follow on from the day session. Price held below 21247 and pressed into 21090. If price can press below 21090 and then hold a lower high, I expect to see a push into 20900 and potentially below. If price flushes below 21090 then holds back above the level, I will look for a higher low for a short squeeze. The Nikkei continued down after the day session close to trade below 27438 and tested previous overnight lows at 27388. Ideally, I would like to see a pop higher from the open to drag in some buyers before a squeeze lower to 27305. The DAX held below 15474 resistance but was supported on a flush into 15403. Buyers are pressing price higher in overnight trade but expect that if price holds below 15474, any lower high will lead to a break below 15403. If price moves above 15474 and holds, then a higher low will see a spike up into 15510-15560 resistance. The UK100 tested into new all time highs as expected and then moved lower through 7888. Price is finding some support after hours so may grind higher still. If price holds below 7913, then I expect another squeeze on buyers and a move lower.
Key Cryptos Bitcoin and Ethereum pressed lower as share markets moved down. BTC is back below 23150 but found support into 22790. I expect to see a move lower off a lower high if price holds below 23150 today. With ETH, price again found support at 1630 so I am watching to see if sellers hold below the EMAs and build a lower high for a deeper squeeze down through 1630 and potentially 1612.
USD Index held a test into 102.935 and managed to move back up into 103.580 into the US close. If price pushes back above 103.580 and holds, then a higher low will see price again move up. Any lower high below 103.580 will see a grind down which will make Gold bugs happy. Spot Gold flushed above 1880 but could not hold above the level into the US close. Price looks ready for another grind lower a we see the Daily chart extended and rolling over. Any break below 1866 or 1861 could see another major leg down. Crude Oil held above 77.05 and moved up into the US close. The previous few sessions, price action has been squeezing out recent sellers so I am expecting a lower high soon for another push down. I am bias towards another extension up into 79.79 today.
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ASX200 Index 5 Min Chart
US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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