Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEDT) for underlying indexes are SPI200 at 10am, N225 at 11am, HSI at 12:30am, DAX and UK100 at 7pm and DOW and USTech100 at 1:30am .
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 30/01/23
US Indexes ended the week with gains ahead of a big week of earnings and the FOMC interest rate release. The three major US indexes put in a strong week, with the Nasdaq leading the charge, as earnings moved into full swing and traders looked to pick up some bargains in expectations that the Fed may pivot soon. The USD is down on daily support while bond prices are potentially set to head lower again which will depend on what the Fed has to say about coming interest rates so focus this week will be on what the Fed has to say regarding inflation after PCE Price Index data came out in line with expectations Friday. The Index is one of the Feds favoured data sets to analyse ‘consumer inflation’ and it showed ‘softening demand and cooling inflation’ which is what the Fed is hoping for. Traders will again be awaiting big Tech earnings with Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta due to release later in the week. The Nasdaq has now rallied roughly 11% to start 2023 and has broken out from a daily downtrend which could be significant if tech earnings this week do not disappoint. All in all, it remains a hard market to navigate so risk management must be a priority.
(All times AEDT) EUR German Prelim GDP at 8pm.
Asian Markets expected to be bias up again on open. The Hang Seng was strong into a major resistance zone so may be choppy again but bid up. The Nikkei has continually squeezed lower to trap shorts prior to a rally and SPI is ranging.
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 20 points as the SPI200 was rangebound in overnight trade between the days high and low.
Prices below as at 9am AEDT
SPI200 (Mar) overnight futures up 12 pts to 7450
SP500 up 10.13 pts to 4070.56
NASDAQ Composite up 109.30 pts to 11621.71
Dow Jones up 28.67 pts to 33978.08
FTSE100 up 4.04 pts to 7765.15
DAX40 up 17.18 pts to 15150.03
GOLD (Spot) down $1.48 to $1927.73 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) down $0.0375 to $4.2300 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Mar) down $1.33 to $79.68
CRB Index down 1.88 pts to 277.66
AUDUSD trading at 0.7100
EURUSD trading at 1.0868
GBPUSD trading at 1.2382
USDJPY trading at 129.8800
USD Index US Session (ICE Mar) up 0.097 to 101.735
The SPI200/ASX200 held between the days session lows around 7428 support and 7461 resistance. There us a minor support level at 7445 which I expect to be broken on the open. Looking for the 7461 to hold and an early flush lower into 7428 to trap sellers prior to a grind higher. (Refer to the Trade The Structure members area for weekly updated ASX200 charts) The DOW again flushed lower after the open to trap sellers before running higher. The moves are engineered to seek out liquidity for the move up so I am expecting more of the same today as the DOW looks to extend up into 34273 resistance or higher. The US Tech 100 has extended up into a major daily level so we may see some chop ahead of key earnings. The coming price action around the level will be pivotal as to whether we can expect new highs or a selloff lower. The anchor to the move up is at 11965 so if this holds then the bias up remains intact. I expect that the anchor will hold and we see a minor squeeze lower to clear out some buyers. The Hang Seng went sideways in overnight trade as price hovered around a key daily resistance level at 22720. I expect to see some sellers come in around this level after the recent strong run higher so looking for a lower high. We could see an opening spike higher to trap bulls prior to a potential lower high. The Nikkei remains in the upward channel after testing 27315 support before moving up. Price is extended but I will be looking for a squeeze up on open through 27535 to trap some buyers before a lower high short setup. The DAX initially squeezed lower into 15084 before bouncing in the US session. Price found sellers into resistance at 15185 which could cap price in Asian and European trade today. I expect that we may see another push down into 15084 as new buyers remain reluctant, so watching for a lower high. The UK100 was under pressure all session and looks ready for lower levels. If the minor resistance level at 7770 holds, then looking for a move down. Could see a flush up into 7781 but I expect this to hold as it has been defended well so far.
Key Cryptos Bitcoin and Ethereum are both set to open higher after a good rally in weekend trade. Prices are hovering around resistance levels so may see some chop and profit taking during Asian market trade so watching both NBTC and ETH for a lower high and squeeze on buyers.
Spot Gold is holding lower highs as buyers are adamant to hold the 1920 support zone. Price could easily flush lower as there will be a lot of stop losses held below 1920 that could be the target for a squeeze. With the USD down on daily support, I feel that bulls will be very tentative and we could see buyers happy to lock in gains if the dollar starts to rally. Crude Oil was a great example of a bull trap with price moving above 82.20 before dumping lower through 79.88. With the move down having no pullback, I will be looking for a squeeze on shorts today for a grind up. If price action remains stubbornly below 79.88, then looking for an extension into 78.55. USD Index edged higher as price hovers around daily support. I expect that price will hold above 101.580 today and again edge higher. If 102.107 holds price down, then we could see a flush into lows.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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